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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (14): 235-241.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-2667

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于过程模拟的东昌湖流域水环境承载力评估与预测

潘红卫 雷宏军 黄冰冰 席北斗   

  • 收稿日期:2013-10-12 修回日期:2013-11-19 出版日期:2014-05-15 发布日期:2014-05-15
  • 基金资助:
    国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项“东昌湖流域水环境承载力与社会经济发展模式研究”(2009ZX07106-03-01)；环保公益性行业科研专项“农业活动区农药污染地下水风险评估与系统管理技术研究”(201109009)。

Assessment and Prediction on the Water Environment Carrying Capacity of Dongchang Lake Basin Based on Process Simulation

  • Received:2013-10-12 Revised:2013-11-19 Online:2014-05-15 Published:2014-05-15

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摘要： 基于过程模拟的水环境承载力评估与预测对区域社会经济的可持续发展有重要的指导作用。以东昌湖及其流域为研究对象，利用Vensim软件构建了由流域社会经济、流域与湖泊水资源、流域与湖泊水环境子系统构成的系统动力学模型。从社会经济、水资源与水环境3个方面构建了包括人均GDP、城镇化率等11个水环境承载力评价指标，采用模糊综合评价法进行评价。以2008年为现状年，以2015年、2020年为近期和远期规划水平年，在规划方案的基础上拟定了3种改善型方案：资源环境约束型、社会经济约束型、协调发展型，对不同发展方案下的水环境承载能力状况进行分析。结果表明，规划方案下东昌湖污染物严重超标（2020年东昌湖CODCr、氨氮、TN平均浓度分别为43.61、2.16、2.85 mg/L），承载力系数较低（2020年达到0.17）；协调发展型方案不仅改善东昌湖水质方面效果显著，而且其水环境承载力系数优于其他方案（2020年达到0.67），预计到2020年CODCr、氨氮和TN浓度可满足水质目标要求（2020年东昌湖CODCr、氨氮、TN评价浓度分别为22.56、1.13、1.41 mg/L）。以协调发展型方案为推荐方案，给出了相应的建议对策。

关键词: 沼肥, 沼肥, 茄子, 甜玉米, 产量, 品质

Abstract: Assessment and prediction on the regional water environment carrying capacity based on process is of great significance to the social and economic sustainable development. Dongchang lake and its basin was selected as the study area. Vensim software was used to build the water environment dynamics model, which was consisted of social-economic system, water resources system and water environment system. 11 indexes of water environment carrying capacity, including the GDP per capita, rate of urbanization and so on were selected, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used in the planning year of 2008, 2015, and 2020. And 3 kinds of improved schemes (resource & environment constrained type, social economy constrained type, coordinated development type) together the planed scheme were proposed. Results showed that: pollutants discharges in the planed scheme exceeded the control target, and the concentration of COD, ammonia nitrogen and TN concentration in 2020 were 43.61 mg/L, 2.16 mg/L, and 2.85 mg/L in Dongchang Lake, respectively, with the water environment carrying capacity as the low level of 0.17 in 2020. The coordinated development scheme not only improved the lake quality significantly (in 2020 the concentration of CODCr, ammonia nitrogen, TN and in Dongchang lake were 22.56 mg/L, 1.13 mg/L, and 1.41 mg/L, respectively), but also increased the water environment bearing capacity to 0.67, which was higher than other schemes. Under the condition of coordinated development scheme, the average CODCr and ammonia nitrogen concentration was expected to meet the lake’s target water quality in 2020. So the coordinated development scheme was selected as suggested scheme, and some suggestions were put forward.