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中国农学通报 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (26): 114-119.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16040075

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于气候适宜度的东北地区日本松干蚧扩散风险评估

袁福香1,李忠辉1,高晓荻2,胡艳全1   

  1. (1吉林省气象科学研究所,长春 130062;2吉林省气象台,长春 130062)
  • 收稿日期:2016-04-12 修回日期:2016-08-29 接受日期:2016-05-13 出版日期:2016-09-21 发布日期:2016-09-21
  • 通讯作者: 袁福香 E-mail:719658555@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金“气候变化对日本松干蚧扩散影响研究”(批准号:41175100);公益性行业(气象)科研专项“森林草原病虫害气象预报与灾损评估技术”(GYHY200906028)。

Matsucoccus matsumurae in Northeast China: The Dispersal Risk Evaluation Based on Climatic Suitability

Yuan Fuxiang1, Li Zhonghui1, Gao Xiaodi2, Hu Yanquan1   

  1. (1Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Jilin Province, Changchun 130062;2Jilin Meteorological Observatory, Changchun 130062)
  • Received:2016-04-12 Revised:2016-08-29 Accepted:2016-05-13 Online:2016-09-21 Published:2016-09-21

摘要: 为了明确日本松干蚧在东北地区可能扩散区域,根据日本松干蚧生长发育所需的气象条件,利用关键期气候资料,采用几何平均方法建立了气候适宜度经验公式,分析了日本松干蚧在东北未感染地区的气候适宜度,对日本松干蚧在东北地区传播扩散的风险进行了定量化评估。结果表明:黑龙江西南部、中南部、东部及吉林境内日本松干蚧入侵的可能性最大;进入绥化一带气象条件也较为适宜,日本松干蚧也可在此地生存繁衍并蔓延;该虫进一步扩散到黑河北部、伊春北部等地其生存会受到一定的威胁,气象条件异常寒冷的冬天会造成越冬若虫的大量死亡,被积雪覆盖的幸存下来的松干蚧会继续繁衍生息,或由外地传入的松干蚧继续生存发展,日本松干蚧生存北界将会止于此区域;大兴安岭地区北部冬季气候寒冷,夏季积温不足,气象条件不适宜日本松干蚧生存,日本松干蚧继续北扩蔓延进入大兴安岭地区的可能性很小。

关键词: 降雨特征, 降雨特征, Mann-Kendall检验, R/S分析, Hurst指数试验, 降雨预测

Abstract: The paper aims to clarify the possible spread region of Matsucoccus matsumurae in northeast China. According to the meteorological conditions needed for the growth and development of Matsucoccus matsumurae, using climatic data of critical period and the geometric method, the authors established the empirical formula of climatic suitability and analyzed the climatic suitability of Matsucoccus matsumurae in uninfected areas in northeast China, and the dispersal risk of Matsucoccus matsumurae in this region was estimated quantitatively. The results showed that: the southwest, south central and east of Heilongjiang and the territory of Jilin were areas that could be infected easily; the meteorological conditions were more appropriate in Suihua and Matsucoccus matsumurae could survive and multiply and spread; if the insect spread further into the north of Heihe and north of Yichun, its survival might be threatened sometimes; the cold weather conditions in winter would cause the mass deaths of overwintering nymph, while snow-covered surviving Matsucoccus matsumurae would continue to thrive, and immigrated Matsucoccus matsumurae could grow and develop in summer; these areas would be north survival border of Matsucoccus matsumurae; the climate of north of Daxinganling was cold in winter and lack of accumulated temperature in summer, which was not suitable for Matsucoccus matsumurae survival; the possibility was very small that Matsucoccus matsumurae grew and continued to spread northward into Daxinganling.