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中国农学通报 ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (9): 106-113.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16120095

所属专题: 资源与环境 现代农业发展与乡村振兴 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

近36年藏东“三江”流域农业气候资源变化特征

王腾,孙晓光,卓 永,次 珍   

  1. 西藏昌都市气象局,西藏昌都市气象局,西藏昌都市气象局,西藏昌都市气象局
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-21 修回日期:2017-01-12 接受日期:2017-01-16 出版日期:2017-03-28 发布日期:2017-03-28
  • 通讯作者: 孙晓光
  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201610 ):气候变化对西藏冬虫夏草气候适宜性的影响评价。

Agricultural Climate Resources: Variation Characteristics in the River Source Region of Eastern Tibet in Recent 36 Years

  • Received:2016-12-21 Revised:2017-01-12 Accepted:2017-01-16 Online:2017-03-28 Published:2017-03-28

摘要: 为了解藏东“三江”流域农业气候资源的变化特征,为政府部门合理利用气候资源提供科学依据。利用藏东“三江”流域1980—2015 年逐日气温、降水量、日照时数等资料,应用线性倾向估计、M-K突变检验等方法,分析近36 年藏东“三江”流域热量、光照、降水资源的变化趋势及对农业生产的影响。结果表明:近36 年,藏东“三江”流域年平均气温、日照时数、降水量呈增加趋势,气候倾向率分别为0.38℃/10 a、22.2 h/10 a、9.4 mm/10 a;流域内各站气温年、季变化趋势一致,日照时数与降水量年、季变化趋势差异较大;降水相对变率春季最大,夏季最小;≥0℃的初日提早、终日推迟,持续日数延长,积温增长。农业气候资源的变化将对藏东“三江”流域农业的发展产生巨大影响。

关键词: 玉米, 玉米, 覆膜方式, 光合特性, 产量

Abstract: The study aims to understand the variation characteristics of agricultural climate resources in the river source region of eastern Tibet, and to provide references for government departments to rationally utilize climate resources. Using the daily temperature, sunshine hours and precipitation data in the river source region of eastern Tibet from 1980 to 2015, we analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution of temperature, sunshine hours and precipitation and the impacts of climate change on agriculture in recent 36 years by the application of linear-trend estimate, Mann-Kendall method and so on. The results showed that: the variation trend of annual mean temperature, sunshine hours and precipitation increased at a rate of about 0.38℃/10 a, 22.2 h/10 a, 9.4 mm/10 a, respectively, in the river source region of eastern Tibet; the annual and seasonal mean temperature had the same variation trend, sunshine hours and precipitation presented annual and seasonal differences in different weather stations; the change rate of precipitation in spring was the largest, and that in summer was the least; for temperature≥0℃, the beginning date was advanced, the ending date was postponed, and the lasting days and the accumulated temperature steadily increased. In conclusion, the change of agricultural climate resources will have a huge impact on agricultural development in the river source region of eastern Tibet.

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