关键词: 降雨特征, 降雨特征, Mann－Kendall检验, R/S分析, Hurst指数试验, 降雨预测

Abstract: The paper aims to clarify the possible spread region of Matsucoccus matsumurae in northeast China. According to the meteorological conditions needed for the growth and development of Matsucoccus matsumurae, using climatic data of critical period and the geometric method, the authors established the empirical formula of climatic suitability and analyzed the climatic suitability of Matsucoccus matsumurae in uninfected areas in northeast China, and the dispersal risk of Matsucoccus matsumurae in this region was estimated quantitatively. The results showed that: the southwest, south central and east of Heilongjiang and the territory of Jilin were areas that could be infected easily; the meteorological conditions were more appropriate in Suihua and Matsucoccus matsumurae could survive and multiply and spread; if the insect spread further into the north of Heihe and north of Yichun, its survival might be threatened sometimes; the cold weather conditions in winter would cause the mass deaths of overwintering nymph, while snow-covered surviving Matsucoccus matsumurae would continue to thrive, and immigrated Matsucoccus matsumurae could grow and develop in summer; these areas would be north survival border of Matsucoccus matsumurae; the climate of north of Daxinganling was cold in winter and lack of accumulated temperature in summer, which was not suitable for Matsucoccus matsumurae survival; the possibility was very small that Matsucoccus matsumurae grew and continued to spread northward into Daxinganling.