欢迎访问《中国农学通报》,

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (19): 215-221.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15020072

所属专题: 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

秀山县暴雨成因分析及预报模式

黎 娜,田文法,罗 成,郝晓虹   

  1. 重庆市酉阳县气象局,重庆市秀山县气象局,重庆市秀山县气象局,重庆市秀山县气象局
  • 收稿日期:2015-02-12 修回日期:2015-06-23 接受日期:2015-06-01 出版日期:2015-07-28 发布日期:2015-07-28
  • 通讯作者: 黎 娜
  • 基金资助:
    重庆市气象局青年基金项目 “秀山地区暴雨特征分析及预报方法研究” (QNJJ-201217)。

Rainstorm Cause Analysis and Forecasting Model in Xiushan County

  • Received:2015-02-12 Revised:2015-06-23 Accepted:2015-06-01 Online:2015-07-28 Published:2015-07-28

摘要: 为了分析研究秀山县暴雨发生的气候规律及其成因,通过对秀山1971—2010年间173个暴雨个例的年季变化特点、本地气象要素的变化、高空环流形势的演变进行统计分析,找出秀山县暴雨发生时的气候背景、环流形势。结果表明:秀山县暴雨开始前常常伴随气温回升,水汽压上升,气压下降的情况,当高空环流形势满足中高纬度两槽一脊型、东北低槽型、切断低压型和台风倒槽型其中一种形势时,秀山县未来24~48h内将出现1次区域性暴雨天气过程。统计得出了秀山县暴雨预报模式,为秀山县暴雨预报服务提供参考依据。

关键词: 松毛虫, 松毛虫, 发生面积, 大气环流指数, 预测模型

Abstract: To analyze Xiushan County rainstorm climate law and its causes, the annual and seasonal changing features of 173 rainstorms in Xiushan during 1971-2010, the change of the local meteorological elements, and the evolution of high-altitude circulation situation were statistical analyzed to identify climate background and circulation situation for rainstorms in Xiushan County. Results showed that, before the rainstorm, there were often temperatures rise, water vapor pressure increase and pressure drop. When aerial circulation situation met one the following situations: the two high-latitude trough of a ridge, northeast low groove, cutoff low-pressure type and typhoon inverted trough, there would be a regional rainstorm process within the next 24-48 hours. A forecasting model on the rainstorms in Xiushan County was obtained through statistical analysis and could provide certain reference.