• 首页期刊简介编委会投稿须知论文要求/规范
南京浦口夏季强降水特征及影响因素

Summer Strong Precipitation in Pukou, Nanjing: Characteristics and Influence Factors
作者
陈其旭(南京市浦口区气象局)
中文关键词
强降水;变化趋势;周期分析;影响因素;农业防灾减灾
英文关键词
strong precipitation;trend of change;periodic analysis;influence factor;Agricultural disaster prevention and reduction
中文摘要
利用浦口1981—2017年夏季(5—9月)各类强降水资料,采用趋势分析、突变检验和周期分析等统计方法,从时间和量级两个方面对各类强降水特征展开分析,为防灾减灾和精细化预报预警提供支撑。研究结果表明,1)7月上、中旬是致灾性连续暴雨和大暴雨高发期,100~150mm的大暴雨发生频率最高,夏季暴雨量没有明显突变,但具有显著的6a周期;2)达暴雨预警级别强降水一般夜间开始,下午明显减弱,最强降水持续时间在12h左右,短时强降水易发生在中午前后和傍晚;3)有4成的预警信号和一半以上的大暴雨都发生在近10a,但小时最大雨量没有明显增强;4)39%的暴雨达到橙色预警标准,但红色仅有1次。地理位置和自然环境是浦口比南京主城区及周边强降水强度大的主要原因。
英文摘要
The paper aims to provide support for the agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, and for the fine forecast and early warning. Based on the data of diverse strong precipitation in summer (May to September) in Pukou during 1981-2017, we analyzed the characteristics of strong precipitation from time and amounts by adopting the methods of trend analysis, mutation test and the periodic analysis. The results showed that: (1) early and mid of July were peak period of continuous rainstorm and heavy rainstorm, the frequency of heavy rainstorm with 100- 150 mm was the highest and the heavy rainstorm had no obvious mutation in summer, but a remarkable 6-year cycle; (2) strong precipitation which reached the level of rainstorm earlywarning often started at the midnight and obviously became weakened in the afternoon; the strong precipitation duration was about 12 hours; the short-time precipitation always happened around the afternoon or in the dusk; (3) 40% of the warning signals and over half of the strong precipitation happened in 2008-2017, however, there was no obvious increase of the maximum precipitation per hour; (4) 39% of the strong precipitation reached the level of orange early- warning, but only one reached red early- warning. The main causes that the strong precipitation intensity in Pukou is stronger than that in urban Nanjing are the location and the natural environment.
DOI10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb18060048