Abstract: With Zhejiang province as case，for the production index of acreage，total production and the yield，the variation feature and trend were analyzed based on the chronological data of food crop production system．The results showed that the acreage was decreasing sharply, the acreage decreasing, north Zhejiang > mid-west Zhejiang > south Zhejiang． Total production，the changing trend was decreasing， the total production decreasing, north Zhejiang > mid-west Zhejiang > south Zhejiang．The yield every year in Zhejiang increased，the yield increasing, south Zhejiang > north Zhejiang > mid-west Zhejiang． According to the variation feature of food crop production index，the integrated growth rate method was used to calculate the integrated growth rate or the integrated reduction rate． For food crop production system ，the pessimistic，normal and optimistic prediction plans were established， respectively，and future，acreage total production and yield per unit area of food crop were predicted based on the actual production indexes．