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中国农学通报 ›› 2008, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (12): 528-530.

• 工程 机械 水利 装备 • 上一篇    下一篇

利用系统动力学模型通过选择定植期最大化香蕉种植收益

李伟光,辛吉武,刘银叶   

  • 收稿日期:2008-07-28 修回日期:2008-09-16 出版日期:2008-12-05 发布日期:2008-12-05

Using System Dynamics Model to Maximize Banana Planting Income by Selection Planting Date

  • Received:2008-07-28 Revised:2008-09-16 Online:2008-12-05 Published:2008-12-05

摘要: 为获得香蕉种植收益最大时的定植期,本文尝试利用系统动力学建模方式,对香蕉定植期进行选择。该模型通过模拟海南岛西部采用较多的一年一造种植方式,考虑香蕉价格和果串钟随季节的波动。模型只需输入逐周气温数据既可以输出该轮种植期内的总收益。模型的准确性经过2007-2008年东方地区香蕉发育情况拟合与验证。模拟结果表明在第22-25周(即5月下旬到六月中上旬)定植香蕉可以获取最大经济收益,与其他定植期相比可以增加经济受益40%。该模型的建立为下一步估算气候变化对香蕉种植的经济影响奠定基础。

Abstract: A model was developed and used to choose the best planting date of a banana field in order to optimize the total income. The model takes into account seasonal variation of the selling price of banana and banana bunch weight. The study was carried out in West of Hainan Island for once harvest per year field management strategies. The total income was outputted with input temperature per weeks only. The results of simulations showed that the optimal planting month is 22-25th weeks of a year and enables a 40% increase in income over other weeks. This approach is a first step towards economic estimation climate change on banana planting using system dynamics model.

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