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中国农学通报 ›› 2009, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (23): 508-515.

所属专题: 现代农业发展与乡村振兴

• 三农研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

四川农业经济动态变化过程与发展惯性

冉清红 岳云华 谢德体 魏朝富 屈 波   

  • 收稿日期:2009-07-20 修回日期:2009-08-29 出版日期:2009-12-05 发布日期:2009-12-05

Quality Changes and Developing Inertia of Agriculture Economy in Sichuan Province

  • Received:2009-07-20 Revised:2009-08-29 Online:2009-12-05 Published:2009-12-05

摘要: 随着四川农业经济结构调整和市场化推进,分析农业结构调整效果和竞争力变化,对评价四川农业经济增长质量动态变化有重要意义。对1998-2007年的四川农业及各部门GDP数据按相邻两年分组,利用份额-偏离分析模型,计算份额分量、结构分量和竞争分量,利用效果指数法,计算结构效果指数和竞争效果指数,对结果数据的时间序列变化进行讨论,然后用移动平均法和G(1,1)分析各项指标的发展惯性。结果表明:1998-2007年的四川农业经济增长质量动态变化具有不稳定性,其中2002年、2003年、2004年和2007年的综合质量最好,种植业和牧业是影响农业结构调整与竞争力提升的关键部门;2009年农业结构与竞争力可能都处于良性状态,2009~2012年的农业结构效果和竞争效果高于全国平均水平,并有缓慢增强趋势。

关键词: 土地整理规划, 土地整理规划, 环境影响评价, 生态足迹法

Abstract: The development of agriculture was more and more concerned with the adjustment of agricultural structure in recent decade. The purpose of analyzing the dynamic changes of agricultural economic growth in recent decade in Sichuan Province was to understand the improvement of agricultural structure and competitiveness. In order to analyze quantitatively the dynamic change of the agricultural structure, the course of agricultural structure change was divided into eight periods from 1998 to 2007. The reference area component, the industry mix and the differential (regional) shift were calculated by Shift-share Method according to the agricultural data in recent decade in Sichuan Province and in China. The agricultural economic growth, agricultural structure and regional competitiveness were estimated. Then the dynamic change of agricultural structure in Sichuan Province was analyzed by tendency analysis. The growth effect, structural effect and competitive effect were larger in Sichuan Province than the average in China in 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2007. And this result has showed that the agricultural development in recent years was consulted from these advantages. From 2005, the positive value of structural effect and competitive effect of agricultural economy was less and less. And the developing inertia of agriculture economy structure in Sichuan Province in 2009 would become the negative effects by the tendency analysis. The inferior position of planting and the unsteadily increase of stockbreeding were the influencing factors to the growth of the agricultural economy. Therefore, the sectors both planting and stockbreeding were of importance that needed to adjust so as to improve the agricultural structure and competitiveness in Sichuan Province in future.