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中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (2): 155-160.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-0588

所属专题: 现代农业发展与乡村振兴

• 三农研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于灰色多元线性计量经济模型的湖南省农村居民收入预测

李军成   

  • 收稿日期:2013-03-05 修回日期:2013-04-17 出版日期:2014-01-15 发布日期:2014-01-15
  • 基金资助:
    湖南人文科技学院教学改革研究项目(RKJGY1218); 湖南省教育厅教改资助项目 (湘教通 2009[321])。

Forecasting Income of the Rural Residents in Hunan Province Based on Gray Multivariable Linear Econometric model

  • Received:2013-03-05 Revised:2013-04-17 Online:2014-01-15 Published:2014-01-15

摘要: 针对单一预测模型精度不高以及预测结果不能体现经济变量关系的不足,将灰色GM(1,1)模型与多元线性计量经济模型加以耦合,建立了灰色多元线性计量经济模型,并利用该模型对湖南省农村居民人均纯收入进行了预测。灰色多元线性计量经济模型的预测精度不仅明显高于单一的灰色GM(1,1)模型和多元线性回归模型,而且预测结果也能体现经济变量之间的关系。预测结果表明,未来几年湖南省农村居民人均纯收入逐年增长,但增长的速度较为缓慢。最后,给出了几点调控湖南省农村居民收入差距的建议。

关键词: 基因治疗, 基因治疗

Abstract: The accuracy of a single forecasting model is not high, and the forecasting results can not reflect the relationship between economic variables. For solving these problems, the gray multivariable linear econometric model is constructed by combining with the gray GM(1,1) model and multivariable econometric model. And then, the proposed model is used to forecast trend of the per capital net income of rural residents in Hunan province. The forecasting precision of the proposed model is not only higher than the single gray GM(1,1) model and multivariable linear regression model, but also could reflect the relationships between the economic variables. The forecasting results show that the per capital net income of rural residents in Hunan province will increase year by year in next few years, but the growth rate will be relatively slow. Finally, some suggestions for regulating the income gap of rural residents in Hunan province.