关键词: 产量动态预报, 产量动态预报

Abstract: In order to understand the variation characteristics of climate in Xiongyue, and better services for agricultural production, based on the data of sunshine duration, total cloud amount, low cloud amount, surface vapour pressure and precipitation in Xiongyue Town in Liaoning Province from 1953 to 2010, the sunshine duration variation characteristics and the influencing factors were analyzed by using the linear trend estimation and the accumulative anomalies method. The results showed that: the sunshine duration in Xiongyue showed a significant decreasing tendency in recent 58 years with a decreasing rate of 53.5 h/10 a; the average sunshine duration of 1960s was 2899.0 h which was the most in decadal, while the least one was 2598.9 h which was found in 1990s. It was found that the seasonal sunshine duration showed a conspicuous decreasing trend in all the seasons and the trends decreased most in summer, less in spring and autumn, least in winter. The mutation occurred around 1971, with the annual sunshine duration decreased rapidly, the climate changed from the period of more sunshine to the period of less sunshine. There was a negative correlation between the sunshine duration in Xiongyue and the total cloud amount, low cloud amount (correlation coefficient was -0.52), the surface vapour pressure (correlation coefficient was -0.50) and the precipitation, but a positive correlation between the sunshine duration in Xiongyue and the wind speed (correlation coefficient was 0.37). All the given correlation coefficients passed 0.01 significant level test.