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中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (35): 201-209.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-1507

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

近51年来广西不同等级降水的变化特征

宋苗,杨东,曾婷,马露,薛霜懿   

  1. 西北师范大学,西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,西北师范大学,西北师范大学,西北师范大学
  • 收稿日期:2014-05-27 修回日期:2014-05-27 接受日期:2014-07-17 出版日期:2015-03-18 发布日期:2015-03-18
  • 通讯作者: 杨东
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(41262001);甘肃省高校基本科研业务费项目。

The Variation Characteristic of Different Levels of Precipitation in Guangxi Province in Recent 51 Years

曾婷,马露 and 薛霜懿   

  • Received:2014-05-27 Revised:2014-05-27 Accepted:2014-07-17 Online:2015-03-18 Published:2015-03-18

摘要: 基于广西省20个气象站点1961-2011年的逐日降水资料,采用一元线性倾向估计法、小波分析、M-K突变检测和R/S等方法分析了广西省不同等级降水的时空变化特征,并探讨了降水量的变化趋势。结果表明:(1)不同等级降水量的年际变化趋势有所不同,微雨和小雨呈非常显著的减小趋势,中雨呈明显的减小趋势,大雨呈不明显的减小趋势,暴雨呈不明显的增大趋势;(2)在0.05的置信度下不同等级降水量的突变表现出差异性,尤其小雨具有显著的突变现象;(3)在空间分布上,不同等级降水量既表现出东西差异,也表现出南北差异,微雨、小雨、中雨以及大雨均存在下降趋势,暴雨略有增加趋势,各站点的降水也存在空间差异性,这与年际变化趋势相一致;(4)从周期变化来看,受不同因素的影响,广西各等级降水量存在长短不同的周期振荡;(5)R/S分析表明,不同等级降水未来的变化趋势和过去一致。

关键词: 水分生产效率, 水分生产效率

Abstract: Based on the 1961- 2011 precipitation data from 20 meteorological stations in the Guangxi Province, and used the methods of climatic linear regression, Morlet wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall rank analysis and R/S, the authors analyzed the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of different levels of precipitation and its change tends in Guangxi. The results indicated that: (1) the annual precipitation in Guangxi presented different tendencies, drizzle rain, light rain and moderate rain had a significant increasing tendency, large rain had an unobvious decreasing tendency and storm rain had an unobvious increasing tendency; (2) it was also found that abrupt changes of different levels of precipitation displayed difference at the 0.05 level, the change of light rain was especially remarkable; (3) the results indicated that the spatial distributions of precipitation of different grades changed from east to west and from south to north, drizzle rain, light rain, moderate rain and large rain had shown declining tendency, but storm rain has shown increasing tendency; at the same time, it was found that difference existed in all meteorological stations that were consistent with the tendency of annual variation; (4) dued to the effects of different factors, different periodical variation was also displayed very clearly at the different levels of Precipitation in Guangxi province; (5) R/S analysis showed that the future variation tendency of different levels of precipitation was consistent with the past.