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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (18): 226-230.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb14120033

• 三农研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

河南省粮食产量波动特征及影响因素分析

李青松,邓素君,徐国劲,文 倩,朱嘉伟   

  1. (河南农业大学资源与环境学院/河南省高校农业资源与环境工程技术研究中心,郑州 450002）
  • 收稿日期:2014-12-03 修回日期:2015-06-09 接受日期:2015-03-26 出版日期:2015-07-27 发布日期:2015-07-27
  • 通讯作者: 文倩
  • 基金资助:
    国土部中国地质调查局地质调查项目“中原经济区（河南部分）资源环境承载力评价与区划”(12120113007300)；河南省教育厅项目“中原经济区土地生态承载力评价与区划研究”(14B630013)。

Analysis of the Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Grain Output in Henan Province

Li Qingsong, Deng Sujun, Xu Guojin, Wen Qian, Zhu Jiawei   

  1. (College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University/Engineering Research Center of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Colleges and Universities of Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450002)
  • Received:2014-12-03 Revised:2015-06-09 Accepted:2015-03-26 Online:2015-07-27 Published:2015-07-27

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摘要： 为揭示河南省粮食生产变化特征，探析河南省粮食产量变化的影响因素，利用小波诊断技术对1978—2012年河南粮食产量变化的特征和影响因素进行分析。结果表明：河南省的粮食产量波动存在5、10、20年左右的特征时间尺度，并以10年和20年左右的特征时间尺度为主。综合3种尺度下的时间特征，河南粮食生产周期逐渐增大，粮食产量变化渐趋稳定。河南粮食生产目前正处于相对丰产期，但随后就会进入新的粮食减产期。所选因素对粮食产量的影响均是正向的，他们的增加均会促进粮食产量的提高，但不同因素对粮食产量的影响大小不同，按影响程度次序为，粮食播种面积>农田有效灌溉面积>乡村农业人员数量>化肥施用折纯量>农用机械总动力>农村用电量。

关键词: 品种身份证, 品种身份证, 商品码, 指纹码, 特异基因识别码, 条码表述

Abstract: In order to explore the characteristics and influencing factors of grain output in Henan Province, wavelet analysis was used to analyze the characteristics and influencing factors of the grain output from 1978 to 2012 in Henan Province. The results showed that grain output in Henan Province had 5 years, 10 years and 20 years characteristic time scales, and 10 years and 20 years were the main ones. Time scale of grain output tended to be longer, and changes of grain output tended to be stable. Grain output in Henan Province was in relative harvest period at present, but it would be in a new grain reduction period subsequently. The selected influencing factors of grain output were all positive, and their increases would promote grain output, but influencing levels of different factors on grain output were different. Sequence of the influencing degree was grain sown area>effective irrigation area>number of rural agricultural workers>consumption of chemical fertilizer in farmland>total power of agricultural machinery>electricity consumed in rural area.