欢迎访问《中国农学通报》，
中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (26): 181-187.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16060061

• 三农研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

“一带一路”背景下中俄农产品产业内贸易增长潜力分析

孙育新   

  1. (黑龙江大学财务处,哈尔滨 150080）
  • 收稿日期:2016-06-13 修回日期:2016-07-28 接受日期:2016-08-12 出版日期:2016-09-21 发布日期:2016-09-21
  • 通讯作者: 孙育新
  • 基金资助:
    2014年国家社科基金项目“我国收入逆向转移影响分配差距的机制及控制研究”(14AJY011)；2010年省哲学社会科学研究项目“黑龙江金融机构存贷差额过大问题研究”(10B028)；2011年黑龙江省教育厅人文社会科学项目“协调视角下的高校科研经费管理模式”(12512273)；2014年黑龙江省教育厅科学技术研究项目“地区GDP核算制度及数据衔接问题分析”(12541645)。

Growth Potential of Sino-Russian Agricultural Products Trade Based on the Belt and Road Initiative:An Empirical Analysis with UN Comtrade Data from 2001 to 2013

Sun Yuxin   

  1. (Financial Department, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080)
  • Received:2016-06-13 Revised:2016-07-28 Accepted:2016-08-12 Online:2016-09-21 Published:2016-09-21

PDF (PC)

530

摘要： 为深刻认识“一带一路”战略下中俄农产品贸易潜力，探究制约中俄农产品贸易增长的主要因素，基于2001—2013年UN Comtrade相关数据，对中俄农产品贸易的相似性、互补性和增长潜力进行实证分析。研究发现，市场需求引致效应是中俄农产品贸易增长的首要因素；出口结构效应制约了中国对俄农产品贸易增长，出口竞争力效应阻碍了俄罗斯对中农产品贸易增长。为此，中国可通过加强对俄信息交流、培育规模化农业经营主体等手段调整中国农产品供给结构，同时，中国应建立价格预警机制和预防机制以应对俄罗斯农产品供给价格和质量变动。

关键词: 农村敬老院, 农村敬老院, “五保”老人, 需求视角

Abstract: To deeply know the Sino-Russian trade potential of agricultural products under the Belt and Road initiative and find the main factors affecting the growth of agricultural trade between China and Russia, the similarity, complementarity and growth potential of Sino-Russian trade on agricultural products were analyzed by using Constant Market Share model based on UN Comtrade data from 2001 to 2013. Results showed that market demand was the key factor promoting the growth of agricultural products trade, while export structure restricted the growth of agricultural products trade from China to Russia, and export competitiveness restricted the growth of agricultural product trade from Russia to China. Therefore, China should reinforce information communication and cultivate large-scale agricultural businesses to adjust supply structure of agricultural products. Meanwhile, China should establish early price warning and prevention mechanism to cope with the price and quality changes of Russian agricultural products.