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中国农学通报 ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (25): 116-126.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16100082

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

1969—2013年华南前汛期极端降水年际异常及影响因子

章开美,陈胜东,李丽平,杨华   

  1. 江西省气象服务中心,江西省气象科学研究所,气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室 南京信息工程大学大气科学系,江西省气象服务中心
  • 收稿日期:2016-10-20 修回日期:2016-12-16 接受日期:2016-12-19 出版日期:2017-09-15 发布日期:2017-09-15
  • 通讯作者: 章开美
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点基础研究发展计划“973 计划”(2013CB430200);公益性(气象)行业专项“夏季中高纬波包活动与我国南方大范围降水极端事件 预测方法研究”(GYHY201406024)。

Extreme Precipitation During the Pre-rainy Season in South China, 1969-2013: Interannual Variations and Influence Factors

陈胜东,李丽平 and   

  • Received:2016-10-20 Revised:2016-12-16 Accepted:2016-12-19 Online:2017-09-15 Published:2017-09-15

摘要: 利用国家气象信息中心发布的逐日降水资料、NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析风场及NOAA重构延长的逐月海表温度(SST)资料,研究了华南前汛期极端降水年际异常时空特征,并进一步从海洋及大气环流上探讨极端降水年际变化的主要影响因子。结果表明:(1)华南前汛期各极端降水指数呈显著年际变化特征,且在广东、广西、福建中北部和江西中南部呈一致性异常,贵州中南部呈相反异常分布。特别是1990s 以来,广东、广西及福建中北部是洪涝灾害的高风险区,而贵州中南部则易发生干旱。(2)“类ENSO”型海温异常及相应大气环流异常是影响华南前汛期极端降水的主要因子,前冬到次年前汛期,“类ENSO”型正异常维持但有一定程度减弱,南海以北的东亚大陆沿岸自南向北依次存在反气旋—气旋—反气旋环流系统,南海及菲律宾群岛以东洋面的反气旋环流系统向北输送暖湿气流,贝加尔湖以东的反气旋环流和日本群岛附近的气旋式环流分别向南输送干冷和湿冷气流,南北气流交汇于华南地区,易造成华南前汛期洪涝灾害。

关键词: 叶片面积, 叶片面积, 数字照片解析法, 坐标纸法, 复印比重法

Abstract: Using of the daily precipitation data of 89 stations in South china from the national meteorological information Center and the reanalyzed monthly average 850hPa wind field from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, as well as extend reconstruction monthly sea surface temperature (SST) data form National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration between 1969 and 2013, the spatial-temporal features and influence factors of extreme precipitation during the pre-rainy season in South China were researched .The main conclusions are as follows. (1) The interannual variations of the pre-rainy season extreme precipitation of South China are significant. Most areas in South China are consistent anomaly,except for the central and south of Guizhou, Since the 1990s, particularly in Guangdong, south Guangxi, the north and central of Fujian, and central and south Guizhou,where the risk of extreme precipitation is high. (2) The main reasons of the interannual variations of extreme precipitation in South China are ENSO-like sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and the corresponding atmospheric circulation anomaly. From the preceding winter to the pre-rainy season, ENSO-like SSTA has the percentage decrease, however, the ENSO-like positive SSTA sustainably regulates the South China Sea and western Pacific anti-cyclonic airflow to impact on the South China Sea, which increases the warm and humid vapor input to South China and causes extreme floods in pre-rainy season of South China, And vice versa.