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中国农学通报 ›› 2018, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (9): 81-89.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb17110002

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于DERF2.0对黑龙江省初夏降水的客观预测

班晋,王波,赵佳莹,李永生   

  1. 黑龙江省气候中心,黑龙江省气候中心,黑龙江省气候中心,黑龙江省气候中心
  • 收稿日期:2017-11-01 修回日期:2018-03-06 接受日期:2017-12-01 出版日期:2018-03-21 发布日期:2018-03-21
  • 通讯作者: 王波
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目“4—5 月南亚高压形态变化对ENSO的响应及其对南亚夏季风爆发的调控”(41505049)。中央引导地方科技发展 专项“强厄尔尼诺现象对黑龙江省极端天气气候影响及其中长期预报方法研究”(ZY18C12)。

Objective Prediction of Precipitation in Early Summer of Heilongjiang Province Based on DERF 2.0

  • Received:2017-11-01 Revised:2018-03-06 Accepted:2017-12-01 Online:2018-03-21 Published:2018-03-21

摘要: 基于国家气候中心第二代模式业务系统(DERF2.0)资料,开展了黑龙江省初夏(6月)1983~2013年的历史回报检验工作。通过经验正交分解法(EOF)和最优子集回归(OSR)分析模式降尺度解释应用的预测结果,利用短期气候预测综合业务评分PS以及距平相关系数ACC等方法评估模式降尺度对黑龙江省初夏降水的预测性能,并且与模式直接预测要素结果进行对比。结果发现,DERF2.0模式降尺度解释应用的预测要明显好于模式直接预测要素。此外,DERF2.0模式降尺度解释应用对2004年和2009年的极端旱涝年预测也有一定的技巧。

Abstract: Based on the second generation model system data (DERF 2.0) of National Climate Center System, the historical return inspection work in early summer (June) of Heilongjiang Province from 1983 to 2013 was investigated. Through empirical orthogonal function method (EOF) and optimal subset regression (OSR), we analyzed the prediction results of the model downscaling interpretation application, and used short- term climate prediction integrated service score (PS) and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) method to evaluate the prediction performance of model downscaling in early summer precipitation of Heilongjiang Province, and compared the results with that of model direct prediction factor. The results showed that the prediction of DERF 2.0 model downscaling was much better than that of the direct prediction of model. In addition, the application of DERF 2.0 model downscaling interpretation had moderate skills for predicting extreme drought and flood years in 2004 and 2009.