宣城烟叶成熟期连阴雨灾害损失评估研究

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2026-0270

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为科学评估宣城烟叶成熟期连阴雨灾害损失，本研究以宣城市7个县（市、区）2005—2024年逐日气象数据、烟叶产量及烟叶物候发育期资料为基础，采用统计分析、相关性分析和K-Means聚类算法，系统开展连阴雨灾害致灾因子筛选、临界值确定、强度指数构建及灾害等级划分研究。结果表明：连阴雨期间降水量(R_R)和持续降水天数(D_R)是宣城烟叶成熟期连阴雨灾害的核心致灾因子，二者与产量灾损率(ΔY)均呈显著正相关(P<0.05)，其中腰叶成熟期R_R与ΔY达极显著相关(P<0.01)；基于权重系数法构建了脚叶成熟期、腰叶成熟期、顶叶成熟期3个发育期的连阴雨强度指数模型，结合K-Means聚类将灾害划分为轻、中、重、特重4个等级，明确了各等级对应的强度指数阈值、灾损率区间及发生概率。实测数据验证结果显示，该评估体系等级差≤1的整体准确率达88%，轻、中度灾害评估准确率86%，重、特重度灾害准确率89%；空间适用性上，北部的平均准确率为90%，南部86%。本研究构建的烟叶成熟期连阴雨灾害损失评估体系，填补了宣城烟区相关研究空白，实现了灾害的分发育期、分等级精准评估，可为宣城烟区连阴雨灾害监测预警、风险防控及烟叶种植布局优化提供科学的技术支撑与决策依据。

关键词: 宣城, 烟叶成熟期, 连阴雨灾害, 致灾因子, 强度指数, 损失评估体系

Abstract:

To scientifically assess the losses caused by continuous rain disasters during the maturity stage of tobacco leaves in Xuancheng, this study was conducted based on daily meteorological data, tobacco yield data, and phenological development data from 7 counties (cities, districts) in Xuancheng City from 2005 to 2024. Using statistical analysis, correlation analysis, and the K-Means clustering algorithm, we systematically carried out research on the screening of disaster-causing factors, determination of critical thresholds, construction of intensity indices, and classification of disaster grades for continuous rain disasters. The results showed that total precipitation (R_R) and duration of rainy days (D_R) during continuous rain were the core disaster-causing factors for continuous rain disasters during the maturity stage of tobacco leaves in Xuancheng. Both factors were significantly positively correlated with yield loss rate (ΔY) (P<0.05), among which R_R during the middle leaf maturity stage was extremely significantly correlated with ΔY (P<0.01). Based on the weight coefficient method, continuous rain intensity index models were constructed for three developmental stages: lower leaves, middle leaves, and upper leaves. Combined with K-Means clustering, the disasters were divided into four grades: slight, moderate, severe, and extremely severe, with the corresponding intensity index thresholds, yield loss rate intervals, and occurrence probabilities clarified. Verification results of measured data showed that the overall accuracy of the evaluation system with a grade difference ≤1 reached 88%, with an accuracy of 86% for slight and moderate disasters, and 89% for severe and extremely severe disasters. In terms of spatial applicability, the average accuracy was 90% in the northern region and 86% in the southern region. The continuous rain disaster loss evaluation system for tobacco leaves during the maturity stage established in this study fills the research gap in the Xuancheng tobacco-growing area and realizes precise stage-based and grade-based disaster evaluation. It can provide scientific technical support and decision-making basis for the monitoring and early warning, risk prevention and control, and optimization of tobacco planting layout under continuous rain disasters in Xuancheng tobacco-growing area.

Key words: Xuancheng, tobacco maturity stage, continuous rain disaster, disaster-inducing factors, intensity index, loss assessment system

中图分类号:

S56
S572

胡安霞, 包静雯, 邱丽芳, 孙秀邦. 宣城烟叶成熟期连阴雨灾害损失评估研究[J]. 中国农学通报, 2026, 42(15): 181-188.

HU Anxia, BAO Jingwen, QIU Lifang, SUN Xiubang. Assessment of Disaster Losses Caused by Continuous Rain During Tobacco Maturity in Xuancheng Region[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2026, 42(15): 181-188.

图/表 6

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发育期	R_R	D_R	S
脚叶成熟期	0.519^*	0.527^*	-0.013
腰叶成熟期	0.559^**	0.349^*	0.049
顶叶成熟期	0.572^*	0.569^*	0.002

发育期	R_R	D_R	S
脚叶成熟期	0.519^*	0.527^*	-0.013
腰叶成熟期	0.559^**	0.349^*	0.049
顶叶成熟期	0.572^*	0.569^*	0.002

发育期	等级	强度指数I	ΔY/%	发生概率/%	概率合计/%
脚叶成熟期	轻	0.29≤I<0.57	ΔY<5	1.6	18.8
	中	0.57≤I<0.96	5≤ΔY<10	12.3
	重	0.96≤I<1.42	10≤ΔY<15	4.1
	特重	≥1.42	≥15	0.8
腰叶成熟期	轻	0.38≤I<0.69	ΔY<5	3.3	26.3
	中	0.69≤I<0.96	5≤ΔY<10	12.3
	重	0.96≤I<1.20	10≤ΔY<15	6.6
	特重	≥1.20	≥15	4.1
顶叶成熟期	轻	0.33≤I<0.64	ΔY<5	2.5	14.0
	中	0.64≤I<1.00	5≤ΔY<10	6.6
	重	1.00≤I<1.22	10≤ΔY<15	3.3
	特重	≥1.22	≥15	1.6

发育期	等级	强度指数I	ΔY/%	发生概率/%	概率合计/%
脚叶成熟期	轻	0.29≤I<0.57	ΔY<5	1.6	18.8
	中	0.57≤I<0.96	5≤ΔY<10	12.3
	重	0.96≤I<1.42	10≤ΔY<15	4.1
	特重	≥1.42	≥15	0.8
腰叶成熟期	轻	0.38≤I<0.69	ΔY<5	3.3	26.3
	中	0.69≤I<0.96	5≤ΔY<10	12.3
	重	0.96≤I<1.20	10≤ΔY<15	6.6
	特重	≥1.20	≥15	4.1
顶叶成熟期	轻	0.33≤I<0.64	ΔY<5	2.5	14.0
	中	0.64≤I<1.00	5≤ΔY<10	6.6
	重	1.00≤I<1.22	10≤ΔY<15	3.3
	特重	≥1.22	≥15	1.6

地域	总样本数	等级差≤1的样本数	等级差≤1的准确率/%
广德	10	9	90
绩溪	12	10	83
泾县	9	8	89
旌德	10	9	90
郎溪	9	8	89
宁国	12	10	83
宣州	10	9	90