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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2011, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (14): 205-209.

所属专题： 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

黑龙江省近56年气温降水变化特征及突变分析

苏晓丹   

  • 收稿日期:2010-11-30 修回日期:2010-12-11 出版日期:2011-06-15 发布日期:2011-06-15
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金;教育部博士点基金项目;黑龙江省自然科学基金项目

Analysis on the Variatiion Character of Temperature and Precipitation and Abrupt Change in Heilongjiang in Recent 56 Years

  • Received:2010-11-30 Revised:2010-12-11 Online:2011-06-15 Published:2011-06-15

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摘要：

摘要：利用黑龙江省14个地面气象观测站1954-2009年的气温和降水资料，运用气候趋势系数和一元回归分析法进行气候变化的趋势分析。结果表明：黑龙江省年气温变化总趋势是上升的，降水变化总趋势是减少的；四季年年平均气温均呈现上升趋势，且春季增幅较大。除春季降水量呈上升趋势，夏、秋、冬季呈现减少趋势，秋季降幅最大，而且秋季降水减少趋势最明显。在此基础上，利用气候要素累积距平曲线和检验信噪比（S/N）进行气候突变分析，结果表明：气温突变出现在1987年，降水突变出现在1963年、1979年和1994年，但突变均不明显。

关键词: 褐化克服, 褐化克服

Abstract:

Abstract:Utilizing the temperature and precipitation date of 14 stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1954 to 2009,climate trend coefficient and simple regression analysis,the trend of climate change was analyzed.The results showed that the general temperature change tendency was increasing,yet the general precipitation tendency was decreasing;seasonal temperature showed upward trend,the biggest temperature heat was spring;the spring precipitation was increasing,but autumn,summer and winter were declining,the most obvious downward trend in precipitation appeared in autumn.On this basis,using climate elements cumulative test curve and test signal of noise ratio(S/N) to analyze climate mutation.The result showed that the temperature mutation appeared in 1987 and the precipitation mutation appeared in 1963、1979 and 1994,but all of them were not obvious.

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