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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2012, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (8): 282-286.

所属专题： 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

天水市雹灾对粮食作物生产影响的风险评价

蒲金涌 尤志刚 李建国 陈薇   

  • 收稿日期:2011-10-14 修回日期:2011-11-18 出版日期:2012-03-15 发布日期:2012-03-15
  • 基金资助:

    国家科技部公益行业科研专项“农田水分利用效率对气候变化的响应与适应技术”

Risk Assessment of Influence of Hail Disaster on Crops in Tianshui

  • Received:2011-10-14 Revised:2011-11-18 Online:2012-03-15 Published:2012-03-15

PDF (PC)

828

摘要：

为了有效防御冰雹对粮食作物的危害，根据天水市7县（区）气象站1971—2010年冰雹观测资料及2010年各县（区）粮食作物播种面积、农业人口、人均GDP值及防雹高炮数量，建立了天水市雹灾对粮食作物生产影响风险评价模式，并对冰雹及雹灾风险度的时空分布进行分析。结果表明，天水市冰雹主要发生在4—10月，集中发生在5—6月。空间分布为北多南少。风险度的空间分布与冰雹的发生次数分布基本一致。在冰雹主要发生月份，以5、7、9月风险度较高，6、8月风险度较低。各县（区）不同时段雹灾发生的风险度差异较大，应根据风险度的高低的时空分布，制定防雹措施，科学安排防雹工作。

关键词: 产值比重优势, 产值比重优势

Abstract:

In order to fend off the hail disaster effectively, the author set up a model to assess the disaster risk. The meteorological data in 7 weather stations which located in Tianshui City, crops area, agricultural population and GDP per head in every counties had been used in analyzing. The results showed that the hail occurred in April to October and concentrated in May to June. The hail occurred in northern more than the southern. The space distribution of degree of hail disaster risk was as same as hail frequency. The higher hail disaster risk was in May, July and September and lower one was in June and August. The differences of hail disaster occurrence among counties were large. It supposed that the measurement of defense hail disaster should accord the degree of hail disaster risk spatial and temporal distribution.