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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2012, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (35): 280-285.

所属专题： 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

天水市近50年干旱灾害变化特征及对夏、秋粮影响风险评估

蒲金涌 王润元 吴丽 李晓薇 李 蓉   

  • 收稿日期:2012-02-28 修回日期:2012-04-03 出版日期:2012-12-15 发布日期:2012-12-15
  • 基金资助:

    国家科技部公益行业科研专项“农田水分利用效率对气候变化的响应与适应技术”

Variation of Drought Disaster Characteristic and Its Risk Assessment on Summer and Autumn Grain Crops in Recent 50 Years in Tianshui

  • Received:2012-02-28 Revised:2012-04-03 Online:2012-12-15 Published:2012-12-15

PDF (PC)

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摘要：

干旱是影响天水市地区粮食生产的主要气象灾害。运用1961—2010年天水市7县（区）气象站降水资料及2001—2010年冬小麦、玉米播种面积及产量资料，建立了干旱影响粮食产量的风险评估指数，并对不同冬小麦、玉米在不同季节受不同等级干旱的影响风险进行了分析。结果表明，轻旱出现的频率为7.09次/年，中旱频率为2.52次/年，重旱出现频率为0.50次/年，特旱出现频率0.25次/年。各等级干旱春季出现频率较高，其次为初夏和伏期，初秋出现频率较低。轻、重、特旱渭北地区出现频率较高，中旱藉、渭河谷出现频率较高。冬小麦轻旱、中旱风险指数较高，重旱、特旱风险指数较低；玉米轻旱风险指数较高，其次为中旱,重、特旱对玉米产量影响风险较小。冬小麦在春季受干旱威胁的风险较大，玉米在初秋受干旱威胁的风险较大。渭北地区冬小麦全生育期受干旱威胁风险较大，藉、渭河谷地区及秦安、清水玉米全生育期受干旱威胁风险较大。冬小麦干旱风险指数大于玉米，秋粮生产气候优势大于夏粮。

关键词: 土壤水分动态变化, 土壤水分动态变化

Abstract:

The grain crops was seriously influenced by drought disaster in Tianhusi. Based on the precipitation data from 1961 to 2010 in seven weather stations which located in Tianshui and grain yield from 2001 to 2010 in seven counties, the model of drought risk index for assessing drought disaster had been set up and the drought risk of wheat and maize had been analyzed. The results showed that the light drought appeared 7.09 times a year, the middle drought appeared 2.52 times a year, heavy drought appeared 0.5 times a year and the heaviest drought appeared 0.25 times a year. The frequency of drought was higher in spring, next in early summer and hot summer, lower in early autumn. The light, heavy and the heaviest drought occurred frequently in the north of Wei river and middle drought appeared frequently in the basin of Xi and Wei river. The light and middle drought risk indexes were higher and heavy and the heaviest drought risk indexes were lower for wheat. The light drought risk index of maize was higher and followed by middle drought. The heavy and the heaviest drought had little effect for growth of maize. The drought risk index of wheat was higher in spring and that of maize was higher in early autumn. The drought risk index of wheat was higher in the whole growth period in the north of Wei river and drought risk index of maize was higher in the whole growth period in basin of Xi and Wei river, Qian and Qingshui counties. The drought risk index of wheat was higher than that of maize and the autumn crops had advantages of climate resource compared with summer crops in Tianshui.