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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2012, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (32): 138-146.

所属专题： 现代农业发展与乡村振兴； 农业地理

• 农村产业结构与区域经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

黔东南地区农业可持续发展评价及预测分析

戴蓉 薛达元 郭泺 孙发明   

  • 收稿日期:2012-05-02 修回日期:2012-07-09 出版日期:2012-11-15 发布日期:2012-11-15
  • 基金资助:

    高等学校学科创新引智计划;国家自然科学基金

The Evaluation and Prediction of the Sustainable Development of Agriculture in Qiandongnan

  • Received:2012-05-02 Revised:2012-07-09 Online:2012-11-15 Published:2012-11-15

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摘要：

为了探索以农业为主的少数民族地区农业可持续发展能力及未来趋势的变化规律，探讨该地区农业可持续发展制约因素，以贵州省黔东南苗族侗族自治州为研究区域，结合黔东南州的农业、社会和经济发展特点，构建了该地区农业可持续发展评价指标体系，并运用主成分分析方法(PCA)对该地区农业可持续发展状态进行定量分析，在此基础上应用灰色GM(1,1)模型对该地区农业可持续发展能力进行趋势预测。结果表明：该地区2000—2009年农业经济子系统、农业生产子系统、农业社会子系统与农业可持续发展总体水平都在持续增长，而农业资源与环境能力不断下降，2003年开始出现低于平均水平的情况。随着农业经济、生产与社会发展，农业资源与环境的压力日益加大，今后的发展将可能面临严重的资源短缺和环境退化的制约。模型趋势预测计算结果经残差检验和后验差检验表明，其平均相对误差为0.062，后验比C=0.2169，误差概率P=1，表现出高的预测精度。预测结果显示，2010—2020年黔东南州的农业可持续综合发展能力仍继续上升，但只递增了5.07倍，这表明该地区农业可持续能力发展还存在诸多限制因素。以期对黔东南的农业可持续发展提供科学依据，为政府农业决策者理论支持。

关键词: 竞争法, 竞争法

Abstract:

In order to explore sustainable agricultural development capabilities and future trends rules in ethnic minority areas which is agriculture-based regions, taking Qiandongnan Miao and Dong Autonomous Prefecture (Qiandongnan) for example, sustainable development index system of agriculture was built by fully integrated characteristics of the agricultural and economic development in Qiandongnan Miao and Dong Autonomous Prefecture (Qiandongnan). The principal component analysis (PCA) method was used to quantitatively analyze the status of sustainable development of agriculture, and then the GM (1,1) model was used to predict the trend of agricultural sustainable development in Qiandongnan. The results showed that, the development trends of agricultural economic subsystem, agricultural production subsystem and agricultural society subsystem were the similar with the total agricultural sustainable development, increased year by year between 2000-2009, but the agricultural resources and environment subsystem declined and sustainability was below the average level since 2003. It means that with the development of the agricultural economy, production and society, the pressure on the agricultural resources and environment was growing, so further development will likely face the serious shortages of resources and constraints of environmental degradation. The predicted results passed the posterior-variance-test and residual analysis by gray modeling method and showed high precision, these results includes the average relative error of calculation is 0.062, C=0.2169, P=1. The prediction revealed that, keep comprehensive capacity of agriculture on rising, but only increased 5.07 times for the next 11 years. It showed that, a certain number of problems still exist in development of agriculture in this region and we should taken some measures to solve it. Quantitative analysis and predicted results in order to provide scientific basis and direction for agriculture development in Qiandongnan and references for agricultural policy makers in the government.

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