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中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (8): 197-204.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-0943

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

山西省近49年降水量变化特征及趋势分析

张卉 程永明 江渊   

  • 收稿日期:2013-04-02 修回日期:2013-07-17 出版日期:2014-03-15 发布日期:2014-03-15
  • 基金资助:
    山西省气象局领军人才项目(2010-03); 中国气象局 2009气候变化专项(CCSF-09-01)。

The Characteristics and Tendency of Precipitation Change in Shanxi Nearly 49 Years

  • Received:2013-04-02 Revised:2013-07-17 Online:2014-03-15 Published:2014-03-15

摘要: 为了了解山西省降水量变化规律,合理开发利用山西的气候资源,利用1960—2008年山西省65个气象观测站的降水资料,采用线性倾向估计、滑动平均法、小波分析、突变分析等方法,系统地分析了山西省近49年来降水量变化的特点和规律。结果表明:除冬季降水外,山西省年降水量和春、夏、秋3季降水量均呈现下降趋势,降水倾向率分别为-16.0 mm/10 a(年)、-1.4 mm/10 a(春)、-8.0 mm/10 a(夏)、-7.2 mm/10 a(秋)和0.8 mm/10 a(冬)。山西省年降水量以及夏、冬季降水量存在着明显的准15年和5~10年的周期;春、秋2季降水量则以5~10年的周期为主。山西省年降水量发生了突变,突变开始时间为1978年,而四季降水量均未发生明显的气候突变。

关键词: 结实率, 结实率

Abstract: In order to understand the variation of precipitation in Shanxi Province, rationally develop and utilize the climate resources in Shanxi, according to the precipitation data of 65 weather stations from 1960 to 2008, the characteristics and the discipline of precipitation change in Shanxi nearly 49 years were analyzed by using linear trend analysis, smoothing averages method, wavelet transform and mutation analysis. The results showed that: the average precipitation, spring precipitation, summer precipitation and autumn precipitation were going down, winter precipitation were going up, and the rate of precipitation was -16.0 mm/10 a, -1.4 mm/10 a, -8.0 mm/10 a, -7.2 mm/10 a, 0.8 mm/10 a. The average precipitation, summer precipitation and winter precipitation were based on a cycle of 15 years and 5-10 years. Spring precipitation and autumn precipitation were based on a cycle of 5-10 years. The average precipitation happened to mutate, and the mutational time was in 1978. Seasonal precipitation weren’t happened to mutate.