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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (10): 190-196.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-2151

所属专题： 园艺； 农业气象

• 林学 园艺 园林 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于FastICA的浙江省茶叶早春霜冻时空分布特征

胡波 金志凤 严甲真 李仁忠   

  • 收稿日期:2013-08-09 修回日期:2013-08-26 出版日期:2014-04-05 发布日期:2014-04-05
  • 基金资助:
    公益性行业（气象）科研专项“江南茶叶生产气象保障关键技术研究”(GYHY201306037)；江苏省农业气象重点实验室开放基金“茶叶气象灾害风险区划研究”(JKLAM201208)；中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目“优质农产品气候品质评价技术集成与应用”(CMAGJ2013M20)。

Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Early Spring Frost of Camellia sinensis in Zhejiang Province Based on FastICA

  • Received:2013-08-09 Revised:2013-08-26 Online:2014-04-05 Published:2014-04-05

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摘要： 为分析浙江省茶叶早春霜冻时空分布特征，根据前人研究成果结合浙江茶叶生产实际，提出了茶叶早春霜冻的气象指标和等级划分。基于该指标和全省64个基本气象站1971—2011年气象数据，采用FastICA负熵最大化算法分析浙江省茶叶早春霜冻时空变化特征。结果表明，浙江省茶叶整体、轻度、中度和重度早春霜冻第一独立成分方差贡献率分别为76.65%、49.78%、48.01%和55.82%，第二独立成分方差贡献率较小。各等级早春霜冻第一独立成分变化趋势基本一致，浙江北部是最易发生茶叶早春霜冻的地区。40年间每年都发生茶叶轻度和中度早春霜冻，且空间分布都为北多南少，2000年以后茶叶各等级早春霜冻均呈增加趋势。茶叶各等级早春霜冻第二独立成分呈正负相间的分布型，轻度早春霜冻正值中心位于浙西北，温州中部为负值；中度早春霜冻正值位于嘉兴、湖州东部、杭州东北部和温州中部，宁波南部和台州北部为负值中心；重度早春霜冻负值位于湖州西部和温州西南部，浙江其他地区为正值。41年间浙江省茶叶轻度早春霜冻呈减少趋势，中度早春霜冻趋势线呈波动变化特征，其中20世纪70年代和80年代后半期呈减少趋势，20世纪80年代前期、90年代和2000年以后呈增加趋势，重度早春霜冻没有明显的变化趋势。研究结果可为茶叶生产提供科学依据。

关键词: 组织表达, 组织表达

Abstract: Camellia sinensis is one of the most important economic crops in Zhejiang province. During the process of Camellia sinensis growth, early spring frost is the most frequently happened and worst affected meteorological disaster. Based on the predecessors' research achievements and the actual situation of production in Zhejiang province, the meteorological index and hierarchies of Camellia sinensis early spring frost is proposed. With the index and the meteorological data in the 64 meteorological stations around the province, the temporal and spatial distribution of early spring frost of Camellia sinensis in Zhejiang province is analyzed using the negentropy maximization of FastICA. The results show that the variance contribution of independent component 1(IC1) of the overall, mild and moderate early spring frost are 76.65%，49.78%，48.01% and 55.82% respectively. Variance contribution of IC2 is quite low. The variation trend of IC1 of all levels of early spring frost are basically the same. Early spring frost is most likely to happen in North Zhejiang province. During the 41 years, mild and moderate early spring frost occurred every year in Zhejiang province, with a spatial distribution of more in north and less in the south. All levels of early spring frost have increased since 2000. The IC2 of each early spring frost distribute with a minus-plus character. The mild positive value center of overall early spring frost is in the northwest Zhejiang, and middle Wenzhou is negative. The positive values of moderate early spring frost distribute in Jiaxing, east Huzhou, northeast Hangzhou and middle Wenzhou, and south Ningbo and north Taizhou is the negative center. The negative values of severe early spring frost distribute in west Huzhou and southwest Wenzhou, and other areas of Zhejiang are positive. During the 41 years, the mild spring frost displays a decreasing tendency while the moderate fluctuates-- decreased during 1970s and the second half 1980s and increased during the early 1980s, 1990s and after 2000. Severe early spring frost have no obvious tendency. The results could provide a scientific basis for Camellia sinensis production.