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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (29): 234-238.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-0184

所属专题： 农业气象

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近50年青海海南地区气候变化趋势及突变分析

赵金忠,郭连云   

  1. 青海省贵德县气象局,青海省海南州气象局
  • 收稿日期:2014-01-17 修回日期:2014-01-17 接受日期:2014-03-19 出版日期:2014-10-31 发布日期:2014-10-31
  • 通讯作者: 郭连云

Climatic Changes and Its Mutation During the Past 50 Years in Hainan, Qinghai Province

  • Received:2014-01-17 Revised:2014-01-17 Accepted:2014-03-19 Online:2014-10-31 Published:2014-10-31

摘要： 为了全面分析青海海南地区近50 年的气候变化特征及未来趋势发展，为该区域合理利用气候资源及农业生产提供科学参考，采用线性分析、M-K法，对青海省海南地区1961—2010 年温度、降水、日照时数的观测资料进行了分析。结果表明：近50 年来，海南地区气温总体呈显著增温趋势，以冬季升温最明显，贡献率最大为特征。夏季、冬季和年降水量呈不显著的增多趋势，春季和秋季降水量则呈不显著的减少趋势。夏季日照时数呈显著减少趋势，年和其他季节日照时数的增减趋势不显著，说明夏季日照时数的减少是影响年日照时数减少的主要因素。年平均气温在1990 年发生了增温突变，年降水量和年日照时数未发生突变。

关键词: 数字化学习环境, 数字化学习环境, 学习需求, 学习效果, 实证研究

Abstract: In order to overall analyze the climatic change in the last 50 years and its future trends, provide scientific reference for both reasonably utilizing climatic resources and agricultural production, with lineartrend, Mann- Kendall analysis method, the author examined the climatic changes and the abrupt climate change during the past 50 years in Hainan, Qinghai Province, including observation data of air temperature, precipitation, and sunlight hours from 1961 to 2010 in this area. In the past 50 years, air temperature was increased obviously, especially in winters. Summer, winter and annual precipitation showed a trend of insignificant increase, while spring and autumn precipitation trend was not of significant decrease. Summer sunshine hours was significantly decreased, while annual and other seasons sunshine hours could not be seen as significantly increased or decreased, indicated that the reduction of summer sunshine hours was a major factor affecting annual sunshine hours. In 1990, there was a sudden increase of average annual air temperature, but annual precipitation and annual sunshine hours kept normal.