关键词: 化肥偏生产力, 化肥偏生产力

Abstract: The paper aims to analyze the sustainable development of Gulang in recent years and the feasibility of the current development model and resolve some development problems in time. The ecological footprint (EF) and ecological capacity (EC) of Gulang from 2008 to 2012 were calculated, and the historical change pattern and causes of EF and EC during this period were analyzed based on the ecological footprint analysis, change rate analysis and scissors difference analysis. A forecast model for sustainable development trend of Gulang was developed. The average personal EF gradually increased from 0.837728 to 1.155636 hm² from 2008 to 2012, whereas the average personal EC declined from 1.876579 to 1.606876 hm², thus the EF and EC of Gulang developed in opposite directions, which suggested the change was not too obvious. Although there was not an ecological deficit in Gulang, the surplus decreased from 1.048851 to 0.451240 hm² from 2008 to 2012, indicating that the use of resource was increasing rapidly. Over the same period, the EF per ten thousand yuan GDP decreased, while the ecological occupation rate increased, suggesting that the biologically productive area, the resource utilization rate and the ecological pressure were all increasing. This model forecasts that the average personal EF and EC would be 2.6289 and 0.2368 hm² , respectively, and the average personal deficit would reach 2.3921 hm² in 2022. The results further indicate that the ecological environment of Gulang is not safe and the present development model is not sustainable.