气候变化对内蒙古牧草气候生产潜力的影响

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb17120012

中国农学通报 ›› 2018, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (16): 106-114.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb17120012

所属专题：农业气象

• 资源环境生态土壤气象 • 上一篇下一篇

气候变化对内蒙古牧草气候生产潜力的影响

李夏子,郭春燕,杨晶,赵慧颖

内蒙古自治区气象科学研究所,内蒙古气象服务中心,内蒙古气候中心,黑龙江省气象科学研究所;黑龙江省气象科学研究所

收稿日期:2017-12-02 修回日期:2018-03-29 接受日期:2018-04-13 出版日期:2018-06-06 发布日期:2018-06-06
通讯作者: 李夏子
基金资助:
国家自然基金“西辽河流域湿地演变特征及其对气候变化的响应研究”(41665007)；内蒙古自治区气象局青年基金“内蒙古东部草原优势牧草物候变化及其气象影响因子的研究”(nmqnqx201518)。

Impact of Climate Change onPasture Production Potential in Inner Mongolia

Received:2017-12-02 Revised:2018-03-29 Accepted:2018-04-13 Online:2018-06-06 Published:2018-06-06

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 气候变化对牧草生产潜力的影响研究对充分利用气候资源，应对气候变化，提高牧草生产潜力有重要意义。基于1960—2010 年内蒙古地区30 个气象站逐日气象资料、1983—2009 年8 个牧草观测站牧草观测资料，采用气候线性倾向率模型、迈阿密模型对内蒙古3 个不同类型草原区（草甸草原、典型草原、荒漠草原）的气候及牧草生产潜力特征进行分析。结果表明：近50年内蒙古草原气温升高、降水量偏少，使得暖干化趋势显著，且有发展态势。牧草气候生产潜力空间上由东北到西南逐步递减，3类典型草原气候生产潜力草甸草原＞典型草原＞荒漠草原，分别为4490~6180、4100~6000、420~5000 kg/hm2；气候资源利用率草甸草原＞典型草原＞荒漠草原，分别为39.2%~79.0%、28.9%~66.3%、21.2%~38.7%，尚有潜力可以开发。降水量对草原气候生产潜力的影响均具有正效应；气温对草原气候生产潜力的影响不同草原类型区存在差异，气温对草甸草原牧草气候生产潜力的影响均具有正效应，气温对位置偏南地区的典型草原和荒漠草原牧草气候生产潜力形成负面影响，气温与降水的协同作用对内蒙古草原区牧草气候生产潜力产生影响。总体上，降水量是限制牧草气候生产潜力的主要气候因子，对牧草气候生产潜力起主导作用。

Abstract: To study the impact of climate change on pasture production potential is important for making full use of climate resources, tackling climate change and increasing the potential. Based on daily meteorological data of 30 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia from 1960 to 2010 and the grassland observation data of 8 pasture observatories from 1983 to 2009, climate and pasture production potential characteristics of three types of pasture (meadow steppe, typical grassland and desert steppe) were analyzed by climate linear tendency model and Miami model. The results showed that grassland temperature increased and precipitation decreased in Inner Mongolia in recent 50 years. Climate warm drying trend was significant and worsening. The climate production potential of pasture gradually decreased from northeast to southwest as meadow grassland> typical grassland> desert grassland, the potential was 4490-6180, 4100-6000 and 420-5000 kg/hm2, respectively; the utilization rate of climate resources was meadow grassland> typical grassland> desert steppe, which was 39.2%-79.0%, 28.9%-66.3% and 21.2%-38.7%, respectively, still had a development potential. The effect of precipitation on the climate production potential of pasture was positive while the effect of temperature on that was different among different pasture types, temperature had positive effect on the potential of meadow grassland but negative effect on the potential of typical grassland and desert grassland in the southern region, and the synergistic effect of temperature and precipitation was observed on climate production potential of pasture in Inner Mongolia grassland. In general, precipitation is the main climatic factor restricting the climate production potential of pasture.

李夏子,郭春燕,杨晶,赵慧颖. 气候变化对内蒙古牧草气候生产潜力的影响[J]. 中国农学通报, 2018, 34(16): 106-114.

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气候变化对内蒙古牧草气候生产潜力的影响

Impact of Climate Change onPasture Production Potential in Inner Mongolia

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