关键词: 叶片生物量, 叶片生物量, 绿化树种, 经验公式法, 点数法

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to explore the possible impacts of climate changes on oilseed rape production. Based on the daily temperature record and yield data for winter oilseed rape rice at 52 meteorological stations in Jiangsu during 1961-2012, the changing trends of eight types of low temperature indices in winter and spring were calculated using M-K test, and the quantitative relationship between low temperature indices and yield were discussed by first order difference method. The results was as fellow: (1) During 1961-2012, the total days of low temperature events, and the number, intensity, persistence of continuous low temperature events in most areas of the province showed strong decreasing trends; (2) among the different precipitation indices, FI1(total days with minimum temperature <-5℃ during wintering stage) and CI4 (the longest duration of continuous days with minimum temperature <0℃ during budding stage) had the most significant negative effect on winter oilseed rape yield; (3) sensitivity analysis for yield to FI1 and CI4 showed that oilseed rape planting in the northern areas was more sensitive to low temperature events; (4) the decreasing trend of FI1 and CI4 in most areas of Jiangsu brought a certain increase for winter oilseed rape yield during 1961-2012.