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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2010, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (6): 87-92.

• 林学 园艺 园林 • 上一篇    下一篇

大兴安岭森林雷击火综合指标研究

高永刚1,顾红1,张广英2   

  • 收稿日期:2009-10-27 修回日期:2009-11-16 出版日期:2010-03-20 发布日期:2010-03-20
  • 基金资助:

    耦合生态系统动态的森林雷击火预报评估系统研制;极端灾害天气预报技术方法研究及地球环境监测卫星（EOS）灾害监测技术研究;黑龙江省森林火险监测预警系统

Integrated Index Study on Forest Lightning Fire for Daxinganling Mountains

  • Received:2009-10-27 Revised:2009-11-16 Online:2010-03-20 Published:2010-03-20

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摘要：

大兴安岭林区是我国森林雷击火高发区域，森林雷击火综合指标研究对该区域森林雷击火的监测、预警、管理及保护森林资源具有重要意义。利用黑龙江省大兴安岭林区云地闪观测数据(2005-2007年)、逐日气象观测数据与森林雷击火历史数据 (1965-2007年)等资料，分析了云地闪火源、与可燃物相关的林型分布、与气象条件相关的林火初始蔓延速度等因素对森林雷击火的重要影响。采用权重分析法，建立了森林雷击火综合指标模型。结果表明：综合模型指标计算值ITDX越大，发生森林雷击火的危险程度越高。当ITDX≧0.9时，极度危险，极易发生雷击火；当0.9>ITDX≧0.7时，高度危险，易发生雷击火；当0.7>ITDX≧0.4时，中、低度危险，可发生雷击火；当0.4>ITDX时，不发生森林雷击火。综合模型能合理地反映云地闪火源、与林型分布相关的可燃物、与气象条件相关的林火初始蔓延速度等因素对森林雷击火的综合影响，符合大兴安岭林区森林雷击火环境所处的危险程度和实际森林雷击火发生情况，可为森林雷击火危险程度的监测或预警提供一定的依据。

关键词: 龙眼长跗萤叶甲, 龙眼长跗萤叶甲, 过冷却点, 体液冰点, 发育起点, 有效积温

Abstract:

The forest lightning fire of Daxinganling mountains was highly happened in frequency in China, the integrated index study on the forest lightning fire is very important to monitor, early warn and administrate the forest lightning fire, and to protect forest resource. Based on lightning observation data from 2005 to 2007, daily meteorological observation data and history record data of the forest lightning fire from 1965 to 2007 in Daxinganling mountains of Heilongjiang Province, the important influence of the factors was analyzed on the forest lightning fire, these factors include lightning firebrand, forest type distribution related to fuel, and initial spread speed of forest fire related to meteorological condition. The integrated index model for the forest lightning fire was established with weighting analysis method. The integrated index model is ITDX=0.3ILDX+0.5ISDX+0.2IFTDX,the ITDX is the integrated index of the forest lightning fire in the model, the ILDX is the lightning firebrand index, the ISDX is the index for the initial spread speed of forest fire related to meteorological condition, the IFTDX is the index for forest type distribution related to fuel, the ITDX is 0 when the daily rainfall is above 8.8 mm. The index calculation method of the ILDX, ISDX and IFTDX were introduced in the paper. The calculated value extent of the integrated index ITDX is between 0 and 1.0. The results showed that, the ITDX calculated value of the integrated index is bigger, the dangerous degree of the forest lightning fire to happen is higher. The forest lightning fire is the extremely dangerous and likeliest happening when ITDX≧0.9, it’s highly dangerous and likelier happening when 0.9>ITDX≧0.7, it’s middle or low dangerous and likely happening when 0.7>ITDX≧0.4, it’s no danger and no happening when 0.4>ITDX. The synthesis influence for the forest lightning fire could be effectively reflected in the integrated model by means of the factors, which include lightning firebrand, forest type distribution related to fuel, and initial spread speed of forest fire related to meteorological condition, the results was in accordance with the dangerous degree of the forest lightning fire environment and the actual happened condition of the forest lightning fire in Daxinganling mountains. The model application could provide a certain clue to the monitoring and early warning for the dangerous degree of the forest lightning fire.