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中国农学通报 ›› 2005, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (5): 380-380.

所属专题: 小麦 农业气象

• 目次 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化导致的冬小麦产量波动及应对措施模拟

熊 伟,许吟隆,林而达   

  • 出版日期:2005-05-05 发布日期:2005-05-05

The Simulation of Yield Variability of Winter Wheat and its Corresponding Adaptation Options under Climate Change

Xiong Wei, Xu Yinlong, Lin Erda   

  • Online:2005-05-05 Published:2005-05-05

摘要: 气候变化导致中国气候资源发生变化,从而影响中国未来的农业生产。利用区域气候模式模拟的未来两种温室气体排放方案A2和B2下的气候变化情景分别与CERES-小麦模式相连接,研究了气候变化下中国北方地区冬小麦长时间序列的产量波动及产量变率的可能变化,及采取两种适应措施后,产量波动及变率的相应变化。结果表明,A2和B2两种气候变化情景下,未来3个时段冬小麦平均产量和最高产量会有所增高,但产量的年际波动和变率也将明显加大,产量的年际变幅也会显著增加。采取适应措施后,调整播期和改变品种会减少产量的波动和变率,该地区播期适当提前,选用中熟品种是未来气候变化下的较好适应组合。

Abstract: The changed climate resource due to the climate change will impact the agricultural production in China in future. Based on the emission scenarios of greenhouse gases – A2 and B2, and by using RCM (Regional Climate Model) – PRECIS and CERES-Wheat model, the paper simulated the impacts of climate change on the winter wheat yield variability at North China, and simulated the performance of two adaptation options under climate change scenarios. The results shows: maximum yield, average yield as well as the yield variability will increase under both A2 and B2 climate change scenarios at all periods. Advancing the sowing date and changing to the middle-term cultivars can decrease the yield variability, stabilized the yield.