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中国农学通报 ›› 2012, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (22): 277-281.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2011-3734

所属专题: 农业气象 烟草种植与生产

• 林学 园艺 园林 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于气候相似性的云南烤烟主要化学成分预测

钟楚 朱勇 李蒙   

  • 收稿日期:2011-12-09 修回日期:2012-02-01 出版日期:2012-08-05 发布日期:2012-08-05
  • 基金资助:

    国家科技部公益性行业科研专项“设施农业及特色农产品气象保障关键技术研究”

Forecasting for Main Chemical Compositions of Flue-cured Tobacco in Yunnan Based on Climate Comparability

  • Received:2011-12-09 Revised:2012-02-01 Online:2012-08-05 Published:2012-08-05

摘要:

为研究利用气象因子预测烤烟品质的问题,采用系统聚类法,以烟叶总糖、还原糖、烟碱、总氮和蛋白质5种化学成分为基础,根据平方欧氏距离最小原则,将云南省2004年全省83个植烟县烟叶化学品质分成10种类型,并确定了这10种类型相对应的气象条件。根据“相似气候条件下烟叶化学成分相近”的理论,计算了2005年云南省83个植烟县气象因子与这10种烤烟化学品质类型对应的气象因子之间的欧氏距离。以距离越小相似性越高的原理,对各县烟叶主要化学成分及品质类型进行预测。结果表明,总糖、还原糖、烟碱、总氮和蛋白质含量预测的根均方差百分率(RRMSE)分别为8.91%、10.40%、22.31%、10.46%和13.08%。该方法对各化学成分的中值区和高值区预测效果普遍较低值区好。结果说明,采用该方法预测烟叶化学成分具有一定的可行性。

关键词: 同源基因, 同源基因

Abstract:

For studying the problem that forecasting flue-cured tobacco quality with meteorological factors, the chemical quality of flue-cured tobacco in 83 tobacco-planting counties of Yunnan Province in 2004 were divided into 10 types, which was based on total sugar, reducing sugar, nicotine, total nitrogen and protein, according to the principle of minimum square Euclidean distance by using systemic cluster analysis. According to the theory that similar chemical compositions of flue-cured tobacco in similar climatic conditions, the Euclidean distance of meteorological conditions between the 83 tobacco-planting counties in 2005 and the corresponding 10 types of chemical quality in flue-cured tobacco were calculated. To the principle that the smaller distance, the higher similarity, the main chemical compositions and quality types of tobacco leaf were predicted. The results showed that percent relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of total sugar, reducing sugar, nicotine, total nitrogen and protein predictive values were 8.91%, 10.40%, 22.31%, 10.46% and 13.08%, respectively. The predictive effect of this method was general better in mid-value and high-value areas than in low-value area of chemical compositions. The results suggested that this method has a certain feasibility for chemical compositions forecast of tobacco.

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