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中国农学通报 ›› 2013, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (11): 180-187.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2012-2668

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

甘肃黄土高原近52年四季极端降水变化特征

杨东 程军奇   

  • 收稿日期:2012-07-31 修回日期:2012-09-12 出版日期:2013-04-15 发布日期:2013-04-15
  • 基金资助:
    甘肃省自然科学基金资助项目;甘肃省高校研究生导师科研资助项目

The Variation Characteristic of Extreme Precipitation in Different Seasons in Loess Plateau of Gansu Region in Recent 52 Years

  • Received:2012-07-31 Revised:2012-09-12 Online:2013-04-15 Published:2013-04-15

摘要: 为了客观分析并揭示甘肃黄土高原近52年各季极端降水过程的气候变化事实,利用甘肃黄土高原地区1960—2011年12个站点及周边4个站点的逐日降水观测资料,用阈值检测方法计算出甘肃黄土高原地区极端降水的阈值,并运用气候线性趋势、多项式拟合、反距离加权法、Morlet小波、Mann-Kendall检验、R/S方法分析了近52年甘肃黄土高原四季的极端降水特征。结果表明:(1)甘肃黄土高原地区近52年极端降水主要发生在夏季;(2)四季极端降水都呈下降趋势,其中秋季下降趋势最为显著;(3)夏季和秋季极端降水量和年极端降水量的相关性最好,对年极端降水量有很好的响应;(4)在空间分布上,四季极端降水在北部增加显著,减小区主要集中在中部;(5)四季极端降水在不同的时间序列存在长短不同的周期震荡,以25年左右的震荡周期最为明显;(6)只有夏季极端降水发生了突变;(7)R/S分析表明,夏季极端降水未来的变化趋势和过去相反,其他3个季节极端降水未来的变化趋势都和过去一致。关键词:极端降水;四季;变化特征;甘肃黄土高原

关键词: 群落多样性, 群落多样性

Abstract: In order to analyze and reveal the extreme precipitation process for nearly 52 years in loess plateau of Gansu Region, the data on the year-by-year daily precipitation of 12 meteorological stations and 4 around in loess plateau of Gansu Region was selected, the thresholds of extreme precipitation were measured by the method of threshold detection as well as climate linear trend analysis, polynomial fitting, inverse distance weighted, Morlet wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall test and R/S analysis to analyze. The results showed that: (1) extreme precipitation occured mainly in the summer; (2) Four seasons extreme precipitation showed a decrease trend, fall extreme precipitation was decrease most significantly; (3) Summer and autumn extreme precipitation had good correlation with annual extreme precipitation and made the greatest contribution to the annual extreme precipitation; (4) On the spatial distribution, four seasons of extreme precipitation in the north increased significantly, decreased area mainly in the central; (5) It was demonstrated that different vibration periods were displayed very clearly in the extreme precipitation of four seasons in recent 52 years, of about 25 years vibration periods was the most obvious; (6) Only summer extreme precipitation existed abrupt; (6) R/S analysis showed that the future of the extreme precipitation of trends were contrary with the past, the other three seasons were consistent with the past.