关键词: 灰空间, 灰空间

Abstract: Abstract: Temperature variation and evolution trend in Yudong farming areas under the background of global warming can provide the necessary reference for agricultural development. Temperature variation facts, trends and variation cycle are analyzed using methods of Mann-Kendal analysis, regression analysis,5a sliding average and Morlet Wavelet based on five meteorological stations in Yudong. The results show average annual temperature, average winter temperature, average spring temperature, average fall temperature under the 99% confidence level appear increasing mutation corresponding to 1993, 1969, 1984 and 2004, respectively. The average summer temperature doesn’t have the mutation year. Average annual temperature, average winter temperature, average spring temperature, average fall temperature have an apparent trend under the 99% confidence level, the interannual trend rate are 0.186 ℃ / 10a, 0.251 ℃ / 10a, 0.259 ℃ / 10a, 0.221 ℃/10a respectively. Average spring temperature trend is not obvious. Shock period of seasonal and annual average temperature in the past 60 years has complex variation characters with a nested structure on multiple time scales, annual average temperature exist 3 years, 10 years and 16 years oscillation period signal. In the past 10 years, temperature increase significantly, the impact of climate warming on agricultural production have advantages and disadvantages, warming in winter and spring can improve the yield of winter wheat, and also aggravate the pest and frost drought disasters occur at the same time.