欢迎访问《中国农学通报》,

中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (18): 112-118.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-2879

所属专题: 农业气象

• 农学 农业基础科学 • 上一篇    下一篇

安徽省气候变化背景下降水量对粮食产量的影响

高金兰 马晓群 许莹   

  • 收稿日期:2013-11-04 修回日期:2014-01-08 出版日期:2014-06-25 发布日期:2014-06-25
  • 基金资助:
    2010年气象行业专项 “淮河流域主要农作物旱涝损失精细化评估技术” (GYHY201006027)。

Effect of Precipitation on Grain Yield on the Background of Climate Changes in Anhui Province

  • Received:2013-11-04 Revised:2014-01-08 Online:2014-06-25 Published:2014-06-25

摘要: 为揭示安徽省不同区域气温和降水的气候变化趋势及其对粮食单产的影响,利用安徽省78个县1971—2010年气象数据和1991—2010年粮食单产,运用统计分析法,分析安徽省气候变化背景下降水量对粮食产量的影响。结果表明:气温随时间升高趋势明显,但是年际变化率相对较小;降水量无显著的时间变化趋势,但年际波动大;北部降水量少于南部,但是变异系数较南部更大。因此产量波动主要由水分条件不稳定所导致,北部更甚于南部。4个区域作物3—9月积极生长期最适宜降水量由北向南分别为400~800 mm、400~1000 mm、500~1000 mm、800~1400 mm。由于作物的积极生长期与降水量偏多的时段同步,降水量偏多对产量的不利影响显著,特别是降水量最多的Ⅳ区。

关键词: 淡水渔业研究中心, 淡水渔业研究中心, 援外培训, 人力资源开发

Abstract: In order to reveal different region temperature and precipitation of climate change tendency and unit area grain yield influence in Anhui Province, based on meteorological data from 1971 to 1990 and unit area grain yield from 1991 to 2010 in 78 counties Anhui Province. On the background of climate changes in Anhui Province, the author analyzed the effect of precipitation on grain yield by adopting mathematical statistics. The results showed that; temperature rose obviously, but inter-annual variation was relatively small. Precipitation had no significant trend variation, but the inter-annual fluctuation was large. The northern precipitation was less than the south, but the variation coefficient was greater than the south. So output fluctuation was mainly caused by unstable water condition. From March to Septemper optimum precipitation in positive growth phase, which 4 region crops was respectively to 400-800 mm, 400-1000 mm, 500-1000 mm, 800-1400 mm from north to south. Actively growing period crops and precipitation were bullish which were synchronal. Precipitation was bullish that was produced adverse effected by output, especially of 4 regions.