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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (23): 259-265.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-2950

所属专题： 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

1958—2012年郑州市极端气温和极端气温事件年际变化特征

吴燕锋 巴特尔?巴克 阿斯姑力?托合提 加依娜古丽?窝扎提汗 李维 魏小琴 Rasulov H H   

  • 收稿日期:2013-11-10 修回日期:2013-12-15 出版日期:2014-08-15 发布日期:2014-08-15
  • 基金资助:
    国家国际科技合作计划(2010DFA92720-13)； 新疆维吾尔自治区土壤学重点学科； 新疆研究生科研创新项目资助。

The Variation of Extreme Temperature and Extreme Weather Events from 1958 to 2012 in Zhengzhou

  • Received:2013-11-10 Revised:2013-12-15 Online:2014-08-15 Published:2014-08-15

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摘要： 为了探究郑州市极端气温和极端气温事件的变化特征及其未来发展趋势，根据1958—2012年郑州市逐日最高、最低气温资料，以百分位阀值法确定了逐年的极端气温阀值，并统计出极端高温和低温天气日数，运用Mann-Kendall非参数秩次相关检验法和小波分析法研究了郑州市过去55年年最低气温、年最高气温、极端高温阀值、极端低温阀值、极端高温天气日数和极端低温天气日数的年际变化特征、突变特征和周期变换特征，并运用了R/S分析进行了预测。结果表明：（1）郑州市年最高气温、极端高温阀值和高温天气日数都呈现减少趋势，而年最低气温、极端低温阀值和低温天气日数都呈增加趋势；（2）郑州市年最高气温、最低气温和年极端低温阀值及极端低温发生日数都发生了明显的突变，并在突变后达到显著水平，而极端低温阀值及极端低温发生日数并未发生明显的突变；（3）周期变化特征上，4种气象要素都存在明显的变化周期，且都是大周期嵌套在小周期的变化特征；（4）从突变特征和周期变化来看，在未来几年，极端高温天气日数将持续增加，极端低温天气日数将持续减少；（5）R/S指数研究表明，最高气温会从减少趋势转化为增加趋势，年最低气温和极端高温天气日数会从增加趋势转化为减少趋势，极端低温天气日数仍会呈现增加趋势。

关键词: 看家基因, 看家基因

Abstract: Based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature data of Zhengzhou from 1958 to 2012, the extreme temperature, the extreme e threshold (determined by means of percentiles threshold) and the days of extreme temperature events were analyzed by the linear trend, Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis methods. The results showed that: (1) the maximum temperature and the days of the extreme minimum temperature had a decreasing trend and the minimum temperature, the days of the extreme maximum temperature had a significant decreasing trend; (2) there were obvious mutation for the maximum temperature, the minimum temperature, and the days of extreme high temperature events, but no mutation for the days of extreme low temperature events; (3) 4 meteorological factors all had a significant periodicity; (4) as to the characteristics of mutation and periodicity, the days of extreme high temperature would be increase continuously and the days of extreme low temperature will be decreasing continuously in the coming years; (5) the maximum temperature will transform from decreasing trend to increasing trend. The minimum temperature and the days of maximum temperature would transform from increasing trend to decreasing trend. The days of maximum temperature would improve continuously.