关键词: 决策支持系统, 决策支持系统, 加工番茄产量, 组合预测模型

Abstract: The problem of selecting rolling process and the problem of controlling the degree of fermentation, that have generally reflected in the primary process of superior Keemun Black Tea, would be solved. Fresh first-class leaves of Qimenzhuye cultivar, which were withered in the same level, were picked as the raw materials. Compared with traditional primary process of Keemun Black Tea, three treatment groups were set up in the rolling process (A): A1(rolling leaves without pressure once + light pressing), A2(rolling leaves without pressure twice + light pressing), A3 (rolling leaves without pressure twice + light pressure + slightly heavy pressure). Three treatment groups were also set up in the fermentation process (B): B1(insufficient, yellowish red), B2(moderate, copper red), B3(slightly heavy, reddish brown). The best rolling process was selected by measuring every treatment’s broken cell rate, rolled leaf rate and intact leaf rate. The best degree of fermentation was selected by comparing every treatment’s results of sensory evaluation and biochemical analysis. The results were as followed. A3: broken cell rate is 87.4%, rolled leaf rate is 84.6%, and intact leaf rate is 59.7%. So, relatively, the A3 treatment could conform to the requirement of rolling of the primary process of superior Keemun Black Tea. B2: mutual proportions of chemical ingredients in dried leaves were in harmony, and its integrated score of sensory evaluation was 94.10. So, the degree of fermentation in the B2 treatment was suitable. Above all, it is better to choose A3 as the rolling process of the primary process of superior Keemen Black Tea; and it is better to choose B2 as the degree of fermentation in the primary process.