关键词: 寿光, 寿光

Abstract: Based on the meteorological observation data from 1961 to 2011 in Hainan Province, by using linear trend estimation and M- K mutation test, the variation characteristics and trends of agricultural climate resources and agriculture meteorology disasters in Hainan Island were analyzed. The results showed that: in recent 50 years the average annual, seasonal average and ≥ 10℃accumulated temperature all presented a clearly increasing trend（P ＜0.05）,with the tendency ratios of climate were 0.22℃/10a, 0.17℃/10a, 0.18℃/10a, 0.22℃/10a, 0.29℃/10a, 173.89℃/10a, respectively, while the increase was most obvious for annual mean minimum and winter average temperature, abrupt changes occurred in the late 1980s. Annual precipitation, which was unevenly distributed within the year for summer and autumn that contributed more than 70%, presented a weak increasing trend, the number of annual precipitation days reached storm rainfall grade presented a clearly increasing trend. Annual sunshine hours had obviously decreased by 57.58h/10a and abrupt changed in early late 1990s. Frequency of tropical cyclones landing in Hainan island was reduced while the destruction enhanced; the drought disaster had an obvious inter- annual fluctuation; due to the rise of temperatures, threat of cold injury and chilling damages reduced. In general, the agricultural climate resources in Hainan Island had warming and drying trend with the more abundant heat resources, more sufficient water and light resources, even more serious tropical cyclone disasters. Based on the above analysis, the effects of climate change on tropical agriculture and agricultural measures to cope with it were discussed which may provide a scientific basis for making full use of favorable climatic resources and adjusting crop production layout.