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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (31): 181-185.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-1655

所属专题： 农业气象

• 林学 园艺 园林 • 上一篇    下一篇

天水春夏季连阴雨天气对蜜桃生产影响的评估技术研究

姚晓红,许彦平,刘晓强,马杰   

  1. 甘肃省天水市气象局,甘肃省天水市气象局,甘肃省天水市气象局,甘肃省天水市气象局
  • 收稿日期:2014-06-11 修回日期:2014-06-11 接受日期:2014-09-05 出版日期:2014-11-20 发布日期:2014-11-20
  • 通讯作者: 姚晓红
  • 基金资助:
    甘肃省气象局基金项目“果树气象灾害风险的综合评估技术和方法研究”(2014-12)

Influence Evaluation of Continuous Rain to Peach Production in Spring and Summer in Tianshui

  • Received:2014-06-11 Revised:2014-06-11 Accepted:2014-09-05 Online:2014-11-20 Published:2014-11-20

摘要： 为有效防御春夏季连阴雨灾害对天水蜜桃生产影响，采用统计学方法和风险原理提取了主要致灾因子并构建了气象灾害风险评估模型。主要致灾因子以5 月上旬蜜桃花后坐果期和7 月下旬至8 月上旬蜜桃果实速生膨大至成熟期影响最为明显，并以春末5 月上旬蜜桃花后坐果期连阴雨天气灾害对蜜桃产量影响最大，贡献率83%；2 个时段连阴雨天气灾害强度均以轻灾最多。综合评估表明，影响天水市蜜桃生产的连阴雨灾害综合评估除大灾、轻灾评估准确率略低为75%和83%外，中灾和重灾评估准确率均达100%，灾害评估效果比较理想，对农业防灾减灾有一定的指导意义。

关键词: 家系选育, 家系选育

Abstract: To effectively determine the effect of continuous rain in spring and summer on the production of peach in Tianshui, statistical method and risk principle were used to extract the main disaster factors and even construct the model of meteorological disaster risk assessment. The main disaster factors affected the production significantly when peach began fruit- setting in early May and peach began fast growing and inflating to mature from late July to early August. The continuous rain occurred in early May was the worst factor and the contribution rate was up to 83%. Among these two periods, the mild disaster occurred most. The results showed that mild and major disaster evaluation accuracy were 75% and 83% , and the evaluation accuracy of moderate and severe disaster were up to 100%. The disaster evaluation result was ideal and had reference value in agricultural disaster prevention and reduction.