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中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (25): 259-268.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15030094

所属专题: 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

大连地区气温的统计特征及数值预报检验

赛瀚,黄艇   

  1. 大连市气象台,大连市气象台
  • 收稿日期:2015-03-12 修回日期:2015-06-01 接受日期:2015-06-12 出版日期:2015-09-23 发布日期:2015-09-23
  • 通讯作者: 黄艇
  • 基金资助:
    “大连地区温度预报方法研究及预报系统”(辽宁省气象局备案201302)

Statistical Characteristics and Numerical Forecast Verification of Maximum and Minimum Temperature in Dalian Area

  • Received:2015-03-12 Revised:2015-06-01 Accepted:2015-06-12 Online:2015-09-23 Published:2015-09-23

摘要: 为了提高大连地区温度预报的准确率,笔者利用2003—2013 年大连地区自动站温度资料、2013年6 种数值预报产品以及大连市气象台预报的产品,统计2003—2012 年10 年7 站20—20 时最高、最低温度在不同季节的出现时间的频率,对2013 年数值预报产品进行温度检验,检验时效为24 h。结果表明:大连地区最高、最低温度出现时间的频率分布均呈双峰型,最高温度多出现在14 时和21 时,最低温度多出现在5 时—8 时和21 时;在6 种数值预报产品中,一般是SCMOC对南部地区的温度预报的较好,对北部地区的温度来说是ECMWF预报的相对较好,而且整体上最高温度的正确率总是低于最低温度的正确率。

关键词: 隐色结晶紫, 隐色结晶紫

Abstract: The paper aims to improve the accuracy of temperature forecast in Dalian Area, the frequency distribution of the occurrence time of the maximum and minimum temperature in different seasons were analyzed using automatic station temperature data of Dalian Area in 2003-2012 and the automatic station temperature data, the products of ECMWF, SCMOC, SLMOF, T639, STOBJ, WRF and SPCC in 2013 were used to test temperature forecast in Dalian Area, the time span of forecast was 24 hours. The results showed that the frequency distribution of the occurrence time of the maximum and minimum temperature was a bimodal. The maximum (minimum) temperature appeared at 14:00 and 21:00 (5:00- 8:00 and 21:00). For temperature forecast, SCMOC had better forecast effect than other products in the south of Dalian Area, and ECMWF performed better than others in the north of Dalian Area. The correct rate of the maximum temperature was always smaller than that of the minimum temperature.