气候条件对气象干旱与农业干旱耦合关系的影响

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb20190700378

中国农学通报 ›› 2020, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (26): 83-92.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb20190700378

所属专题：现代农业发展与乡村振兴；农业气象

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇下一篇

气候条件对气象干旱与农业干旱耦合关系的影响

范嘉智¹^,²(), 谭诗琪³, 王丹⁴, 罗宇¹, 张建军⁵, 耿欢⁶

¹中国气象局气象干部培训学院湖南分院,长沙 410125
²气象防灾减灾湖南省重点实验室,长沙 410118
³湖南省气象服务中心,长沙 410118
⁴南京信息工程大学应用气象学院生态气象环境研究中心,南京 210044
⁵湖南省气候中心,长沙 410118
⁶国网池州供电公司,安徽池州 247200

收稿日期:2019-07-03 修回日期:2019-09-24 出版日期:2020-09-15 发布日期:2020-09-14
作者简介:范嘉智,男,1992年出生,安徽马鞍山人,工程师,硕士,研究方向：农业气象、生态气象。通信地址：410125 湖南省长沙市芙蓉区远大二路1070号中国气象局气象干部培训学院湖南分院,Tel：0731-84691896,E-mail：fjz92419@hotmail.com。
基金资助:
中国气象局气象干部培训学院2018年度科研项目“农业气象数据处理实训个例设计与开发”(内2018-015);湖南省气象局短平快科研项目“湖南水稻天气指数保险研究”(XQKJ18B070)

Climate Conditions: Effects on Coupling Relationship Between Meteorological Drought and Agricultural Drought

Fan Jiazhi¹^,²(), Tan Shiqi³, Wang Dan⁴, Luo Yu¹, Zhang Jianjun⁵, Geng Huan⁶

¹China Meteorological Administration Training Centre Hunan Branch, Changsha 410125
²Key Laboratory of Hunan Province for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, Changsha 410118
³Hunan Meteorological Service Center, Changsha 410118
⁴International Center for Ecology, Meteorology and Environment, School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044
⁵Hunan Climate Center, Changsha 410118
⁶State Grid Chizhou Power Supply Company, Chizhou Anhui 247200

Received:2019-07-03 Revised:2019-09-24 Online:2020-09-15 Published:2020-09-14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以多时间尺度SPEI干旱指数代表气象干旱,农业气象观测站观测的多层土壤体积含水量历史数据作为农业干旱的代表因子,在中国东部亚热带季风气候区、中部大陆性季风气候区和西部中温带干旱气候区探究了气象干旱和农业干旱间的耦合关系,并结合时间延迟进行分析。结果显示：中部地区整体相关性最好,西部最差,其中高相关区域在不同气候区有所差异,越干旱的地区与土壤水分更相关的是越长时间尺度的SPEI,西、中、东部站点最优时间尺度分别为9月、6月、4月尺度。土壤表层的降水在一月内即可下渗至50 cm深度并储存在此深度附近,待干旱时补充表层土壤水分。气象干旱和农业干旱均是水分亏缺现象,但是响应时间并不相同,探究其耦合关系对于提升对干旱机理的认识、提高干旱监测水平、助力防旱抗旱具有重要意义。

关键词: 标准化降水及蒸散指数, 土壤体积含水量, Pearson相关系数, 时间序列分析, 实测数据

Abstract:

Based on multi-time scale SPEI representing meteorological drought, and the historical multi-layers soil volumetric water content data from agro-meteorological stations as representative factors for agricultural drought, we explored the coupling relationship between meteorological drought and agricultural drought in subtropical monsoon climate region in eastern China, continental monsoon climate region in central China and moderate temperature arid climate region in western China, and conducted the analysis in combine with time delay as well. The results showed that: the overall correlation in the central region was the best, the worst was in the west, among them, the high correlation region had differences in different climatic regions, the longer time-scale of SPEI was more relevant with soil moisture in drier regions, the optimal time scale in western, central and eastern regions was September, June, April, respectively; precipitation infiltrated from soil surface to 50 cm depth within a month and then stored near that depth, to replenish surface soil moisture in the event of drought. Meteorological drought and agricultural drought are both water shortage phenomena, but the response time is not the same. Exploring the coupling relationship between the two is significant for enhancing the awareness of drought mechanism, as well as improving the ability of drought monitoring and mitigating and preventing drought.

Key words: the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index, soil volumetric water content, Pearson correlation coefficient, time series analysis, observed data

中图分类号:

X52
P462.4

范嘉智, 谭诗琪, 王丹, 罗宇, 张建军, 耿欢. 气候条件对气象干旱与农业干旱耦合关系的影响[J]. 中国农学通报, 2020, 36(26): 83-92.

Fan Jiazhi, Tan Shiqi, Wang Dan, Luo Yu, Zhang Jianjun, Geng Huan. Climate Conditions: Effects on Coupling Relationship Between Meteorological Drought and Agricultural Drought[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2020, 36(26): 83-92.

图/表 7

图1. WULAWUSU(A), LUSHI(B), ZHENJIA(C)站SPEI与土壤水分间相关性 ***表示在0.001水平（双侧）上显著相关,**表示在0.01水平（双侧）上显著相关,*表示在0.05水平（双侧）上显著相关,空白表示无相关性

图2. WULAWUSU站SPEI与土壤水分间相关性等值线

图3. LUSHI站SPEI与土壤水分间相关性等值线

图4. LUSHI站时间延迟后SPEI与土壤水分间相关性,相关系数均为绝对值

图5. ZHENJIA站SPEI与土壤水分间相关性

图6. WULAWUSU、LUSHI、ZHENJIA站SPEI与土壤水分间相关系数

图7. WULAWUSU、LUSHI、ZHENJIA站深层(70~100 cm)、中层(40~60 cm)和表层(5~30 cm)土壤水分及最优时间尺度下SPEI时间序列图

参考文献 42

[1]	Burton Lan. The environment as hazard[M]. Guilford press, 1993.
[2]	Tan Zhu Ping, Gao Xue Ping. Comparative advantage and spatial distribution of wheat in China from 1997 to 2016[J]. Journal of Henan Agricultural University, 2018,52(5):14.
[3]	Parry Martin L, Rosenzweig Cynthia, Iglesias Ana, et al. Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios[J]. Global environmental change, 2004,14(1):53-67. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.008 URL
[4]	Dai Aiguo. Drought under global warming: a review[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2011,2(1):45-65. doi: 10.1002/wcc.81 URL
[5]	Wang Su Ping, Zhang Cun Jie, Song Lian Chun, et al. Relationship Between Soil Relative Humidity and the Multiscale Meteorological Drought Indexes[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013,35(4):865-873. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0098 URL
[6]	王文, 段莹. 2011年长江中下游冬春连旱期土壤的湿度变化[J]. 干旱气象, 2012,30(3):305-314.
[7]	Keyantash John, Dracup John A. The quantification of drought: an evaluation of drought indices[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2002,83(8):1167-1180. doi: 10.1175/1520-0477-83.8.1167 URL
[8]	Wang Aihui, Lettenmaier Dennis P, Sheffield Justin. Soil moisture drought in China, 1950-2006[J]. Journal of Climate, 2011,24(13):3257-3271. doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI3733.1 URL
[9]	Alapaty Kiran, Raman Sethu, Niyogi Devdutta S. Uncertainty in the specification of surface characteristics: A study of prediction errors in the boundary layer[J]. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 1997,82(3):475-502. doi: 10.1023/A:1017166907476 URL
[10]	赵鸿, 李凤民, 熊友才, 等. 土壤干旱对作物生长过程和产量影响的研究进展[J]. 干旱气象, 2008(3):67-71.
[11]	汤章城. 植物对水分胁迫的反应和适应性——Ⅰ.抗逆性的一般概念和植物的抗涝性[J]. 植物生理学通讯, 1983(3):24-29.
[12]	Tong Zy, Zhang Wc. Progress of soil moisture monitoring by remote sensing[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2007,4:032.
[13]	Vicente-Serrano Sergio M, Beguería Santiago, López-Moreno Juan I. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J]. Journal of climate, 2010,23(7):1696-1718. doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1 URL
[14]	Wang Hongshuo, Vicente-Serrano Sergio M, Tao Fulu, et al. Monitoring winter wheat drought threat in Northern China using multiple climate-based drought indices and soil moisture during 2000-2013[J]. Agricultural and forest meteorology, 2016,228:1-12.
[15]	Sims Aaron P, Niyogi Dev Dutta S, Raman Sethu. Adopting drought indices for estimating soil moisture: A North Carolina case study[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2002, 29(8):24-1-24-4.
[16]	Szalai S, Szinell Cs, Zoboki J. Drought monitoring in Hungary[J]. Early warning systems for drought preparedness and drought management, 2000: 182-199.
[17]	Ji Lei, Peters Albert J. Assessing vegetation response to drought in the northern Great Plains using vegetation and drought indices[J]. Remote Sensing of Environment, 2003,87(1):85-98. doi: 10.1016/S0034-4257(03)00174-3 URL
[18]	Vicente Serrano Sergio M, López-Moreno Juan I. Hydrological response to different time scales of climatological drought: an evaluation of the Standardized Precipitation Index in a mountainous Mediterranean basin[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, European Geosciences Union, 2005,9(5):523-533.
[19]	Vicente-Serrano Sergio M, Cuadrat-Prats José M, Romo Alfredo. Early prediction of crop production using drought indices at different time-scales and remote sensing data: application in the Ebro Valley (north-east Spain)[J]. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2006,27(3):511-518. doi: 10.1080/01431160500296032 URL
[20]	Vicente-Serrano Sergio M. Evaluating the impact of drought using remote sensing in a Mediterranean, semi-arid region[J]. Natural Hazards, 2007,40(1):173-208. doi: 10.1007/s11069-006-0009-7 URL
[21]	Khan S, Gabriel Hf, Rana T. Standard precipitation index to track drought and assess impact of rainfall on watertables in irrigation areas[J]. Irrigation and Drainage Systems, 2008,22(2):159-177. doi: 10.1007/s10795-008-9049-3 URL
[22]	Mckee Thomas B, Doesken Nolan J, Kleist John. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C]. Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 1993: 179-183.
[23]	Zhang Qiang, Zou Xk, Xiao Fj, et al. Classification of meteorological drought[J]. China Standardization Association GB/T20481-2006 Tech. Doc, 2006.
[24]	Abramopoulos F, Rosenzweig C, Choudhury B. Improved ground hydrology calculations for global climate models (GCMs): Soil water movement and evapotranspiration[J]. Journal of Climate, 1988,1(9):921-941. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1988)001<0921:IGHCFG>2.0.CO;2 URL
[25]	Palmer Wayne C. Meteorological drought. Research Paper No. 45. Washington, DC: US Department of Commerce[J]. Weather Bureau, 1965: 59.
[26]	Wells Nathan, Goddard Steve, Hayes Michael J. A self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index[J]. Journal of Climate, 2004,17(12):2335-2351. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2335:ASPDSI>2.0.CO;2 URL
[27]	Dai Aiguo, Trenberth Kevin E, Qian Taotao. A global dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming[J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2004,5(6):1117-1130. doi: 10.1175/JHM-386.1 URL
[28]	Zhang Anzhi, Jia Gensuo. Monitoring meteorological drought in semiarid regions using multi-sensor microwave remote sensing data[J]. Remote Sensing of Environment, 2013,134:12-23. doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2013.02.023 URL
[29]	Sheffield Justin, Goteti Gopi, Wen Fenghua, et al. A simulated soil moisture based drought analysis for the United States[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2004,109(D24).
[30]	Sheffield Justin, Wood Eric F. Characteristics of global and regional drought, 1950-2000: Analysis of soil moisture data from off-line simulation of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2007,112(D17).
[31]	Stagge James H, Tallaksen Lena M, Gudmundsson Lukas, et al. Candidate distributions for climatological drought indices (SPI and SPEI)[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2015,35(13):4027-4040. doi: 10.1002/joc.2015.35.issue-13 URL
[32]	杨绚, 李栋梁. 中国干旱气候分区及其降水量变化特征[J]. 干旱气象, 2008(2):17-24.
[33]	Beguería Santiago, Vicente-Serrano Sergio M, Reig Fergus, et al. Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) revisited: parameter fitting, evapotranspiration models, tools, datasets and drought monitoring[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2014,34(10):3001-3023. doi: 10.1002/joc.3887 URL
[34]	Thornthwaite Charles Warren. An approach toward a rational classification of climate[J]. Geographical review, 1948,38(1):55-94. doi: 10.2307/210739 URL
[35]	Singh V P, Guo H, Yu F X. Parameter estimation for 3-parameter log-logistic distribution (LLD3) by Pome[J]. Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics, 1993,7(3):163-177. doi: 10.1007/BF01585596 URL
[36]	谭永忠, 何巨, 岳文泽, 等. 全国第二次土地调查前后中国耕地面积变化的空间格局[J]. 自然资源学报, 2017,32(2):186-197.
[37]	Narasimhan B, Srinivasan R. Development and evaluation of Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI) and Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI) for agricultural drought monitoring[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2005,133(1/4):69-88. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2005.07.012 URL
[38]	Dai Aiguo. Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2013,3(1):52. doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1633 URL
[39]	Liu X, Zhu X, Pan Y, et al. Agricultural drought monitor: Progress, challenges and prospect[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015,70:1835-1848.
[40]	Wu Shao Hong, Zhao Yan, Tang Qiu Hong, et al. Land surface pattern study under the framework of Future Earth[J]. Progress in Geography, 2015,34(1):10-17. doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.01.002 URL
[41]	Rouault Mathieu, Richard Yves. Intensity and spatial extension of drought in South Africa at different time scales[J]. Water SA, 2003,29(4):489-500.
[42]	刘敏, 秦鹏程, 刘可群, 等. 洪湖水位对不同时间尺度SPEI/SPI干旱指数的响应研究[J]. 气象, 2013,39(09):1163-1170.

气候条件对气象干旱与农业干旱耦合关系的影响

Climate Conditions: Effects on Coupling Relationship Between Meteorological Drought and Agricultural Drought

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 7

参考文献 42

相关文章 2

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

关于本刊

作者中心

审者中心

在线期刊

联系我们

[1]	李文梅覃志豪李文娟. 基于MODIS-NDVI时序数据的南方冬闲田信息提取[J]. 中国农学通报, 2010, 26(7): 324-329.
[2]	李晓方1,刘彦卓1,刘志霞1,卢东柏1,毛兴学1,方正武2,李志新2,唐志明3. 作物性状序列数据模型的分析方法探讨[J]. 中国农学通报, 2010, 26(5): 55-62.