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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (32): 227-231.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-0510

所属专题： 现代农业发展与乡村振兴； 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

近60年农业生产期干旱发生风险分析

张国林,戴海燕,隋景跃   

  1. 辽宁省朝阳市气象局,辽宁省朝阳市气象局,辽宁省朝阳市气象局
  • 收稿日期:2014-03-01 修回日期:2014-03-01 接受日期:2014-04-28 出版日期:2014-11-20 发布日期:2014-11-20
  • 通讯作者: 张国林
  • 基金资助:
    科技部农业科技成果转化资金项目“农田土壤含水量监测预报技术推广应用”(05ESN217400412)。

Analysis on Risk of Agricultural Drought During Crops Growing Period over Nearly 60 Years

  • Received:2014-03-01 Revised:2014-03-01 Accepted:2014-04-28 Online:2014-11-20 Published:2014-11-20

摘要： 采用叶柏寿、朝阳气象站1953—2012 年气象资料，运用积分湿度指数、水平衡和干湿指数，评价辽西地区农业生产期大气降水及农业耗水、农业需水的满足度及不同时期旱涝频率。结果表明：1953—2012 年农业生产期大气降水减少，气候变化率为-9.343 mm/10 a；农业耗水量在增加，气候变化率为6.966 mm/10 a；农业生产期水分平均亏缺-136 mm。降水资源农业满足度为76.3%，缺水概率为90.0%。辽西地区农业生产期属于半湿润半干旱气候类型，重旱及以上年景占5.0%；干旱发生风险近10年增加约10%。总之，辽西地区降水在减少、耗水在增加、农业需水满足度在下降、干旱发生风险在增强。近10年随着气候变暖辽西地区农业生长期从半干旱半湿润气候类型升级为半干旱气候类型。

关键词: 液态地膜, 液态地膜

Abstract: The author adopted meteorological data from meteorological stations in Yebaishou and Liaoxi from 1953 to 2012 to assess and evaluate agricultural water consumption, atmospheric precipitation, and agricultural water demand satisfaction in Liaoxi area during agricultural production, as well as frequency of drought in different periods by integral humidity index, water balance and humidity index. The results showed that: from 1953 to 2012, the atmospheric precipitation decreased during agricultural production, climate change rate was -9.343 mm/10 a; agricultural water consumption increased, and climate change rate was 6.996 mm/10 a; the average humidity gap during agricultural production period was - 136 mm. The agricultural satisfaction of precipitation resource was 76.3%, and the probability of precipitation shortage was 90.0%. In Liaoxi, the climate during agricultural production period was semi-humid and semi-arid, years with severe drought and more accounted for 5.0 %; over past 10 years, drought risk increased by about 10%. Generally, rainfall was reducing in west Liaoning, but the water consumption was increasing, agricultural water demand satisfaction was declining, drought risk was growing. With climate warming in west Liaoning, the climate during crops growing period was transforming from semi-humid and semi-arid climate to semi-arid climate over recent 10 years.