欢迎访问《中国农学通报》,

中国农学通报 ›› 2011, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (6): 451-454.

所属专题: 农业地理 耕地保护

• 农业信息 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于马尔柯夫模型的县域土地利用结构变化及趋势预测——以河北省辛集市为例

于宗海 许月明 吴婧 吴黎   

  • 收稿日期:2010-12-10 修回日期:2011-01-06 出版日期:2011-03-20 发布日期:2011-03-20

The Study on County Variation of Land Use Structure and Trend Prediction Based on Markov Model-Taking Xinji City in Hebei Province as an Example

  • Received:2010-12-10 Revised:2011-01-06 Online:2011-03-20 Published:2011-03-20

摘要:

本研究以探索县域土地利用结构变化发展规律,探讨解决耕地保护和建设用地需求增长的矛盾为目的,以马尔柯夫转移矩阵为基础,对辛集市土地利用结构变化趋势进行预测。预测结果显示,在当前发展趋势下,辛集市耕地面积持续减少,建设用地总量将不断增加,耕地保护压力越来越大。建设用地蔓延过快,耕地占用速度增快将成为土地管理工作中亟待解决的问题。针对这种状况,必须采取相应措施,控制建设用地增长速度,提高建设用地集约利用水平,严格限制耕地占用,最终实现保护耕地的目的。

关键词: 初烘, 初烘

Abstract:

This study explored the development of county land use, the purpose is to resolve the contradiction between land protection and growing demand of land for construction. The research based on Markov transition matrix, predicts the change trend of land use structure of Xinji. The results show that with the current development trend, cultivated land will continue to decrease, and construction land will increase, the pressure on cultivated land protection will increase more and more. Construction land spread too fast and cultivated land occupancy rate increase quickly will be a serious problem in land management. Aiming at this condition, people must take appropriate measures to control the growth rate of construction land, improve the level of intensive use of construction land, strictly limit cultivated land occupied, and finally realize the purpose of protecting cultivated land.

中图分类号: