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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2011, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (20): 274-277.

所属专题： 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

CAPM模型在降雨量预测中的应用

杨丽娟   

  • 收稿日期:2011-02-23 修回日期:2011-03-17 出版日期:2011-08-15 发布日期:2011-08-15

The Application of CAPM Model in Rainfall Forecasting

  • Received:2011-02-23 Revised:2011-03-17 Online:2011-08-15 Published:2011-08-15

PDF (PC)

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摘要：

降雨是影响农业生产的一个重要因素，如何预测降雨量以及所得结果对农业生产具有重要的指导意义。本研究基于降雨量变化与资产价格变化的相似性，将资本资产定价模型（CAPM）的建模思想，应用到降雨量的预测中，建立了降雨量的CAPM模型。用该模型预测的结果比较合理，而且计算方法简单，易于掌握。

关键词: 郑单958, 郑单958

Abstract:

Rainfall is an important factor in agricultural production and that how to predict the results of rainfall has important guiding significance for agricultural production. In this study, the author studied the similarity of changes in asset pricing and rainfall precipitation, and then established a rainfall’s CAPM model to forecast rainfall. The results also showed the model was reasonable in rainfall forecasting, and its calculation was simple, and easy to compare.