关键词: 典型相关分析, 典型相关分析

Abstract:

This article researches agricultural products market price transmission relationship between original and sale market, in order to explore the transmission form, speed and power of agricultural products market price between original and sale market under the conditions of market economy, illustrated by the example of Beijing and Hebei vegetable market, take Chinese cabbage, cucumber and tomato market prices as object, with the help of correlation coefficient, Johansen Co-integration test, Granger causality test, impulse response function, variance decomposition method. Empirical result shows that vegetable market price of Beijing and Hebei relates strongly, which has Co-integration relationship and two-way causal relationship. The price transmission relationship is notable, of which Chinese cabbage and cucumber price transmission rate is 2-order lag, but tomato is 3-order lag. At the conductive process of vegetable price, the guiding force of Beijing, which plays a leading role, is stronger than Hebei province. The transmission type belongs to "demand-pull" typically, and intrinsic transmission power is mainly determined by price fluctuation is caused by supply and demand change of Beijing market. The results also show that, at the case of integration of vegetable in the country to form a large market, the characteristic of manufacturing-according-to-sale has been fully reflected in buyers' market. It proposes that, when the agricultural sector, which plans the vegetable industrial structure according to the trend of sale market, through the establishing of market price of early warning mechanism, the multi-party consultation mechanism, production and marketing joint monitoring mechanism, develops regional vegetable industry, the price of sale market must be fully considered first.