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中国农学通报 ›› 2011, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (24): 219-223.

• 农学 农业基础科学 • 上一篇    下一篇

JENSEN模型敏感指数随机误差对耗水量优化计算结果的影响

李玉婷 缴锡云 罗玉峰   

  • 收稿日期:2011-04-06 修回日期:2011-07-18 出版日期:2011-09-25 发布日期:2011-09-25
  • 基金资助:

    国家科技支撑计划课题

Effect of Stochastic Error of Sensitivity Indexes of Jensen’s Model on Optimal Water Consumption

  • Received:2011-04-06 Revised:2011-07-18 Online:2011-09-25 Published:2011-09-25

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摘要：

根据水分生产函数进行耗水量最优分配，是制定非充分灌溉制度的重要步骤。笔者研究了Jensen模型水分敏感指数随机误差对作物各阶段耗水量优化计算结果的影响。利用棉花灌溉试验数据，得到了Jensen模型各阶段水分敏感指数及其标准差，并通过随机模拟计算了作物各阶段最优耗水量的统计特征值。结果表明，产量和各生育阶段最优耗水量的标准差较大，随着总耗水量约束的加强，产量和各生育阶段最优耗水量的标准差逐渐增大。因此，水分敏感指数的随机波动对最优耗水量计算结果有显著影响，总耗水量约束越强，敏感指数随机波动的影响越大。

关键词: 耕地变化, 耕地变化, 社会经济驱动力, STIRPAT模型, 广州市

Abstract:

Allocating water based on water production function is an important procedure in insufficient irrigation scheduling. The author studied the effect of random fluctuation of sensitivity indexes for different stages of the Jensen model on estimates of crop water consumption. The irrigation experiment data for cotton was used to calculate the water sensitivity indexes and its standard error for different stages in Jensen model. The statistics characteristic value of optimal crop water consumption for different stages was computed through random simulation. The results showed that, the standard errors of yield and the optimal water consumption were considerable. As the restraint of total water consumption was strengthened, the standard errors of yield and optimal water consumption became larger. Consequently, the random fluctuation of the water sensitivity indexes had significant impact on estimates of optimal water consumption. The stronger the restraint of the total water consumption was, the more significant the effects would be.