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中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (7): 251-255.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb14110020

所属专题: 耕地保护

• 三农研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

昆明市耕地变化特征及驱动机制研究

牛乐德   

  1. 云南师范大学
  • 收稿日期:2014-11-04 修回日期:2015-02-25 接受日期:2015-01-13 出版日期:2015-04-03 发布日期:2015-04-03
  • 通讯作者: 牛乐德
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(41361042),教育部人文社科研究青年基金资助项目(12YJCZH159),

Research on characteristics of cultivated Land change and Driving mechanism in Kunming

  • Received:2014-11-04 Revised:2015-02-25 Accepted:2015-01-13 Online:2015-04-03 Published:2015-04-03

摘要: 为分析驱动因子对昆明市耕地变化的影响,根据2000—2010年耕地数量逐年递减,建设用地逐年增加的情况,应用相关分析、回归分析和通径分析的研究模型,探究影响昆明市耕地变化的驱动因子。结果表明:影响昆明市耕地数量变化的主要驱动因子为经济因子、人口因子和技术因子。经济因子(昆明市GDP、工业生产总值、全社会固定资产投资)在耕地减少中处于主导地位;人口因子(总人口数)间接产生一定的作用;技术因子(农机总动力)影响趋势逐渐增强。经济的增长和人口的增加,使人均耕地面积递减的速度呈加快趋势。耕地的减少和人口的增长加剧了人地矛盾,在一定程度上对生态和环境造成重大的影响。

关键词: 景观大树, 景观大树, 嫁接, 移栽, 艺术造型, 景观多样性

Abstract: In order to analyze the driving factors of the cultivated land change in Kunming, correlation analysis, regression analysis and path analysis were used to explore the factors. The study was based on the condition that area of cultivated land was diminishing and area of construction land was increasing in Kunming from 2000 to 2010. The results showed that the main driving factors were economic, population and technical factors. Economic factors (Kunming GDP, the total value of industrial production, fixed asset investment) were the most important. Population factor (total population) was the indirect effective factor. Technical factor (the total power of agricultural machinery) was more and more important. Economic and population growth led to the reduction of cultivated area per capita. Reduction in arable land and increase of population exacerbated the contradiction between people and land, and had a significant impact on ecology and environment.