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中国农学通报 ›› 2012, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (8): 248-253.

所属专题: 现代农业发展与乡村振兴

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

通过多元回归分析农村分布式可再生能源选择的行为研究

申阳 武玉英 严峰   

  • 收稿日期:2011-09-28 修回日期:2011-10-28 出版日期:2012-03-15 发布日期:2012-03-15
  • 基金资助:

    中国农村能源低碳发展的路径设计和激励政策研究

Study on Rural Distributed and Renewable Energy Selection by Multivariable Regression Analysis

  • Received:2011-09-28 Revised:2011-10-28 Online:2012-03-15 Published:2012-03-15

摘要:

为了解决能源危机问题和中国农村低碳经济发展中遇到的问题,以农村户用沼气为典型的分布式可再生能源进行研究,对河北省高家庄的农村能源情况进行调研,以面谈的方式调查农户213户,总结有效问卷为152份,并在此基础上对农户基本情况及可再生能源(“三沼”)使用情况进行统计分析,利用多种回归分析方法来研究农村分布式可再生能源选择行为,分别分析了农民收入、文化程度、能源支出与沼气采用之间的关系,继而运用Logistic多元统计分析得出了农民收入和文化程度对农户可再生能源选择行为有显著性影响的结论,并对该地区未来沼气的采用情况进行了预测分析,以期为各种农村分布式可再生能源的推广提供一定的参考。

关键词: 河北省, 河北省

Abstract:

In order to solve the energy crisis problem and the issues that China rural faced on its way of low-carbon development. This study has launched a research on the adoption of rural household biogas, which is a typical distributed renewable energy. The survey on rural energy adoption has taken place at Gaojiazhuang village of Hebei province. The team have had a face to face interview with 213 families, and summarized 152 valid questionnaires. Based on the questionnaires, the paper adopted a statistic analysis on the rural household basic information and the use of renewable energy (biogas, biogas residue and biogas slurry), various regression analysis approaches were used to study the rural distribute renewable energy choice behavior, the relationships between the renewable energy adoption with the household income, education level and energy expenditure were analyzed. Through the Logistic Analysis, the paper found that the household income and education level has significant impact on the adoption of rural household renewable energy. Then the paper made a forecast on the local household biogas adoption to 2020, which can provide some references on the promotion of various distributed and renewable energy in rural areas.

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