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中国农学通报 ›› 2012, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (29): 226-229.

所属专题: 农业地理 耕地保护

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于马尔可夫模型的吉林市土地利用变化预测

刘孝国 郄瑞卿 董 军   

  • 收稿日期:2012-02-10 修回日期:2012-03-14 出版日期:2012-10-15 发布日期:2012-10-15

The based on the AHP method of the evaluation of land use analysis

  • Received:2012-02-10 Revised:2012-03-14 Online:2012-10-15 Published:2012-10-15

摘要:

基于马尔可夫模型预测的方法,来研究吉林市土地利用结构变化研究。对土地利用变化趋势进行了系统分析,基本掌握了其动态变化特征,构建了土地利用变化的驱动机制模型。马尔可夫预测模型结合起来,构建了土地需求量预测马尔可夫组合模型。分析了区域各土地类型的利用潜力。应用马尔可夫预测模型方法,进行了实证分析,预测了区域土地需求量;预测出影响区域土地和利用变化的主要驱动因素:土地利用结构调整、经济增长和人口增长,从而得出土地利用供求平衡的政策建议。研究结果表明马尔可夫预测模型是一种新的更有效的土地需求预测方法,影响吉林市土地利用变化的主要驱动因素是经济快速发展和政府决策等社会因素。

关键词: 基本生活保障, 基本生活保障

Abstract:

Based on the Markov model prediction method, to study the changes of land use structure in Jilin city.The research results: to land use change trend undertook systems analysis, basic knowledge of its dynamic characteristics, constructing the land use changes in the driving mechanism of model. prediction model combined, constructing the land demand prediction model combined model. the analysis of regional land utilization potential of each type. application of prediction model method, has carried on the empirical analysis, prediction of regional land demand; to predict the effect of regional land use change and the main driving factors: land use structural adjustment, economic growth and population growth, thus obtains the land use supply and demand balance policy recommendations. the results show that the prediction model is a kind of new more effective land demand forecasting method, effect of land use change in Jilin city the main driving factor is the rapid economic development and government decision-making and other social factors.