关键词: 监管, 监管

Abstract: In order to study the spatial and temporal distribution law of winter wheat late frost disasters in shandong province, using the 16 agro-meteorological stations winter wheat jointing stage (WWJS), daily lowest temperature period for jointing - heading stage 1981-2011, utilizing agro-meteorological and statistics methods, the change rules of WWJS were analyzed. Combined the crop frost damage level standard and the actual, formulated out frost damage standards for WWJS period, the frost damage data was counted and analyzed. The results showed that: in general WWJS was at March 27th to April 18th in Shandong province, mean on April 6th. It has a advanced trend. In the regional distribution, early enter the jointing stage area was southwest of Shandong province, next area was that along the Jiaolai river from the Laizhou gulf to the Jiaozhou gulf, the latest area was eastpart of peninsula. It could be expressed with the normal distribution function that daily into the jointing stage with the date the change order. Cumulative probability of frost damage temperature with daily sequence changes was decreasing, the decline rate can be expressed with exponential equation. In Shandong Province, the high probability zone wear the sides of Jiaolai river from the Laizhou gulf to Jiaozhou gulf, include west of the peninsula and east of Weifang city. The low probability areas include three zone, west of Shandong northwest, east of peninsula, parts of Shandong southern. It were the main factors of frost damage that WWJS regularity and frost damage temperature appear rules. The law of jointing stage was mainly affected by the climate and the winter wheat varieties, it was decided by both natural factors and human factors. The rule of frost damage temperature mainly affected by the climate conditions and terrain. The results of the study was helpful to understand the distribution of frost damage rule and it had guiding significance for frost damage defense.