关键词: 涑水河, 涑水河

Abstract: Under the background of the global climate variation, the wheat climate risk degree in Kunming was assessed. It can provide theoretical foundation for avoiding the climate risk. On the basis of fuzzy mathematics theory, with comprehensive wheat climate suitability, the risk model was established. On the above basis, the climate risk evaluation was made for the wheat in Kunming. The results showed that: in last 40 years, wheat climate risk degree was steady and changed little. The precipitation risk degree was high with large variable extents and presented increasing tendency. The temperature risk degree appeared to decline with climate warming. The sunshine risk maintained at low level and changed little. The model for crop climatic risk degree based on fuzzy mathematics theory could objectively reflect the risk degree of climate for crop growth. The precipitation risk was high in whole growing stage of wheat in Kunming. So the main method to avoid the risk was to improve the water control and arrange cropping system rationally.