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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (2): 187-192.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-2282

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

新疆地区30余年水热因子变化特征分析

李润祥1,黄春林1,杜自强2,刘永锋3   

  1. (1中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,兰州 730000；2山西大学黄土高原研究所,太原 030060；3甘肃农业大学资源与环境学院,兰州 730070）
  • 收稿日期:2014-08-21 修回日期:2015-01-15 接受日期:2014-09-29 出版日期:2015-03-19 发布日期:2015-03-19
  • 通讯作者: 杜自强
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(41161066)；教育部、财政部第四批高等学校特色专业建设点项目（TS11781）；山西大学人才建设项目(020751801003)；甘肃农业大学创新基金(GAU-CX1017)。

Trend and Abrupt Change of Temperature and Precipitation in Xinjiang over Three Decades

Li Runxiang1, Huang Chunlin1, Du Ziqiang2, Liu Yongfeng3   

  1. (1Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Science, Lanzhou 730000; 2Institute of Loess Plateau, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030060; 3College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070)
  • Received:2014-08-21 Revised:2015-01-15 Accepted:2014-09-29 Online:2015-03-19 Published:2015-03-19

摘要： 利用新疆地区过去30多年的气象台站气温和降水量观测数据，采用气候倾向线性估计和Mann-Kendall方法分别对气温和降水量的变化趋势与突变信息进行了分析。结果表明：（1）30余年，新疆地区年平均气温呈现较为明显的上升趋势，年均降水量呈现波动式的持续性增长趋势，总体上气候朝向暖湿化方向发展。在0.01的置信水平下，年均气温在20世纪90年代中期发生了明显的突变，年均降水量在同期的波动性增湿并非突变过程；（2）春、夏、秋三季气温倾向率呈现显著的上升趋势，而冬季气温倾向率没有表现出显著的趋势性气候特征。在0.01的显著水平下，春季气温在20世纪末或21世纪初发生了突变，夏季平均气温在1998年发生了突变，秋季的增暖突变发生于1994年，冬季气温没有表现出明显的突变特征；（3）春、夏、秋三季降水呈现波动式减少趋势，而冬季降水呈现显著的增湿趋势。在0.01的显著水平下，四季降水量并没有表现出突变趋势特征。这些结果有助于丰富西部干旱区气候变化研究的基础资料，也能够为新疆地区气候变化对社会经济的影响决策提供科学依据。

关键词: 地统计学, 地统计学

Abstract: Using the methods of linear tendency estimation and Mann-Kendall test, we analyzed change trend and abrupt change information of temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang over the past 30a with climatic observations from meteorological stations. The results were as follows: (1) the average annual temperature in Xinjiang over the past 30a presented an obviously upward trend, and the average annual precipitation showed the wave-growth trend; therefore, the overall climate became warmer and wetter, an evident abrupt change of the average annual temperature occurred in the mid-1990s at 0.01 confidence level, while the average annual precipitation did not show an obvious abrupt change at the same confidence level in the same period; (2) the average temperature in spring, summer and autumn increased significantly, but did not show an obvious trend in winter; abrupt change toward warming trend occurred in the autumn of 1994, abrupt change of the average temperature occurred in the summer of 1998, and abrupt change of the spring temperature occurred in the end of the last century or at the beginning of this century at 0.01 confidence level, while these characteristics did not show in winter; (3) the precipitation in spring, summer and autumn showed a decreasing trend, but the humidifier- tendency was significant in winter. There was no obvious abrupt change of precipitation in seasonal scale. These results could enrich basic materials of climate-change research in western arid region and provide a scientific basis for decision-making of the impact of climate change on the socio-economy in Xinjiang.